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Knife-edge Polish presidential race could slow the march of populism

<span>Photograph: Karol Makurat/Rex/Shutterstock</span>
Photograph: Karol Makurat/Rex/Shutterstock

When Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, goes up against his liberal challenger in a presidential run-off next Sunday, there will be more at stake than just the medium-term political trajectory of the country. The vote is set to be one of the closest and most important European elections in recent years, and the result will resonate well beyond Poland’s borders.

Duda takes on liberal challenger Rafał Trzaskowski in a race that numerous polls suggest is too close to call. The final outcome will be watched closely by European leaders wary of Poland’s recent political direction, and by progressive politicians worldwide seeking lessons about what does or doesn’t work in taking on populists at the ballot box.

Related: Poland set for ‘dirty’ political campaign before presidential run-off

If Duda wins, the Law and Justice (PiS) party will be able to continue to rule largely unchecked. The PiS agenda over the past five years has put Poland on a collision course with Brussels and led the country to be downgraded to a “partially consolidated democracy” by the NGO Freedom House.

Duda has courted further controversy by making homophobic rhetoric a cornerstone of his re-election campaign, promising to “defend children from LGBT ideology” if re-elected and comparing the LGBT rights agenda to communism. On Saturday, he said that in the coming days he would propose a new constitutional amendment to ban same-sex adoption, which he described as the “enslavement” of children.

Trzaskowski, the current mayor of Warsaw, has promised to be a more tolerant and open face of Poland in Europe. He has also vowed that he would use the presidential veto liberally to stymie much of the PiS legislative agenda, unless there were major compromises from the ruling party.

A few months ago, defeating Duda looked impossible. He was riding high in polls and set to win easily. But after the May vote was postponed due to coronavirus, the polls steadily narrowed. In the first round last weekend, featuring 11 candidates, Duda won 43.5% of the vote and was forced into the run-off with Trzaskowski, who got 30.5%.

Traditional voting divides were much in evidence, with older voters and residents of small towns and villages heavily favouring Duda, and Trzaskowski doing better among urban voters. Trzaskowski and Duda are now in a race to pick up the votes of those who backed third candidates. An aggregation of recent polls by the Warsaw-based political scientist Ben Stanley puts Trzaskowski at 50.3% and Duda at 49.7%. There could be just a few thousand votes in it.

There are certain similarities with another divisive re-election campaign, currently under way, by a controversial rightwing nationalist president, and they have not gone unnoticed. Donald Trump invited Duda to the White House, for what was effectively an endorsement, in a surprise intervention just four days before the first-round vote. Then last Wednesday, Barack Obama called Trzaskowski, and they discussed “the importance of Polish democracy”, according to Trzaskowski.

The race is also being watched carefully closer to home. In both Hungary and Poland, the twin bastions of illiberal politics in central Europe, opposition candidates have shown they can win in big cities. Winning the whole country will be much harder, but would send a signal that Poland is not travelling further down the path of illiberalism towards Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

Over the past five years, PiS has offered a cocktail of nationalism, historical grievances, rightwing social and cultural policies, and generous direct welfare payments, most notably substantial monthly child support payments. It has proved a winning combination at the ballot box.

“There are two schools of thought about support for PiS, one is that it’s about money and the other is that people are affected by the rightwing, Catholic propaganda. Our polls show that both are true, but the ideology really is very powerful,” said Piotr Pacewicz, editor-in-chief of OKO.press, a news website.

Realising that economic arguments could be less persuasive during the current downturn, Duda’s campaign has taken a more sinister turn, with the introduction of the anti-LGBT rhetoric. In one notable low point, Przemysław Czarnek, an MP and member of Duda’s campaign team, said of LGBT people: “These people are not equal with normal people.”

While it is not clear that the harsh rhetoric has won Duda new voters, there is no doubt that it is popular among some conservatives. Trzaskowski has tried to sidestep the issue during the campaign and, on Saturday said he was also against same-sex adoption. Instead he has preferred to focus on a positive agenda in broad terms and speaking about local development and economic improvements as well as values.

PiS politicians have been much more skilful in appealing to deep emotions than liberal politicians have, and liberals need to learn from that

Karolina Wigura

In an interview late last year, Trzaskowski conceded that PiS had been better at connecting with voters outside major cities, who felt they had not benefited from years of liberal-run government prior to 2015. He referenced the PiS election slogan of “Poland in ruins”, which it used to win in 2015, messaging reminiscent of Trump’s inauguration promise to end “American carnage”.

“We were laughing at it, and saying everyone can see that Poland has changed and isn’t in ruins. And people in small towns would say, ‘We are not stupid, we know Poland is not in ruins, but most of those changes you’ve introduced are not for us. You’re patronising us and saying it’s a great miracle, but we’re not participants in that.’”

Voting data shows that PiS voters, on average, are likely to be older, more rural, and less educated than PiS opponents. But the full extent of the political divide is more complicated, and simply putting PiS support down to class issues masks a failure among progressive politicians to inspire people.

“This distinction is too comfortable, because it’s always ‘us’ looking at ‘them’, and it’s something between pity and contempt,” said Karolina Wigura, a sociologist who has edited a newly released collection of essays on Polish politics. “PiS politicians have been much more skilful in appealing to deep emotions than liberal politicians have, and liberals need to learn from that.”