What we know about how Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be replace on Supreme Court

WASHINGTON – Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death has set up a high-profile fight that will not only reshape the Supreme Court for decades but will also have campaign-altering ramifications on the November election.

While President Donald Trump and Republicans are expected to move swiftly on filling the high court vacancy, the process takes time — typically at least two months, based on recent nominations. Conservatives could face some serious hurdles due to the proximity to Election Day and Republicans' slim majority in the Senate.

Here's what to expect and everything we know about replacing the void left by Ginsburg.

Trump's nomination

The first step in the process is for the president to offer a nominee. Just last week, Trump offered a short list of 20 potential picks for the Supreme Court that included federal appeals and district court judges, along with several U.S. senators.

At the top of his list to succeed Ginsburg is a woman, aides and advisers said, adding that Trump expects to make the future of the Supreme Court a major part of his re-election bid against Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

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Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a member of the 7th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Indiana, leads Trump's list at this point, advisers said.

Other possibilities:

• Judge Joan Larsen, a Michigan-based jurist and former Scalia clerk who sits on 6th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals;

• Judge Britt Grant, a former member of the Georgia Supreme Court now on the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals;

• Judge Barbara Lagoa, from Florida and a member of the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals; the first Cuban American woman to serve on that court, and nominated by Trump.

Lengthy process in Senate Judiciary

Trump's nominee will face a lengthy vetting process by the Senate Judiciary Committee, the panel charged with examining judicial appointments. Typically, this process can take two months. It includes hearings, one-on-one meetings between senators and the nominee, an FBI background examination of the nominee, document requests and in-depth questioning over the nominee's views on a host of issues that could be taken up by the Supreme Court.

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The process could be longer if there are hiccups, such as an issue in the nominee's background. For example, the nomination of Justice Brett Kavanaugh was delayed by allegations of sexual assault and took three months in 2018.

After meetings and hearings, the panel votes on whether to send the nomination to the full Senate.

A simple majority on the 22-member panel is needed for the nomination to move forward. The panel is comprised of 12 Republicans and 10 Democrats, including a host of senators who are facing close races in November such as Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, and Thom Tillis, R-N.C. A total of eight members of the panel are up for re-election.

The committee's chair, Sen. Lindsey Graham, is also fighting a tough re-election battle and facing criticism over his pledge on Saturday to move forward on Trump's nomination despite past comments indicating he would not if it came close to an election.

"If an opening comes in the last year of President Trump’s term, and the primary process has started, we’ll wait until the next election," he said in 2018.

Senate vote and election dynamics

To clear the 100-member Senate, the nominee will need only a simple majority — or 51 votes.

After a successful Senate vote, the nominee would be sworn in as the ninth member of the Supreme Court.

More: McConnell says Senate will vote on Trump's nominee to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Supreme Court seat

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has already vowed that the Senate would hold a full vote on Trump's nominee, but the timing is unclear. The process of vetting a nominee is almost sure to push a full vote in the Senate to after the November election.

Even if Trump loses the White House and Republicans lose their slim 53-47 majority in the Senate on Nov. 3, McConnell could push ahead with a vote during the "lame duck" session between Election Day and a change of congressional power on Jan. 3.

But the nomination will fail if four Republicans come out in opposition.

A tie could also be broken by Vice President Mike Pence, who can only cast a deciding vote with each party locked at 50.

One race in particular could shift the dynamics of passing Trump's nominee. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., is perhaps the most endangered Republicans in November and the outcome of her race could help dictate whether Republicans can muster the votes to pass a nominee.

McSally was appointed to finish the term of the late Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018. If she is bested by Democratic challenger Mark Kelly, he could be sworn in to take over the seat as early as Nov. 30, two election-law attorneys told The Arizona Republic, citing state law and Senate practices.

Already two Republicans have already said they will not support filling Ginsburg's vacancy before the election. Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Susan Collins, R-Maine, two moderates who often are key swing votes, have said the American people should be offered the chance to cast their ballots before the Senate votes to support Trump's nominee, giving voters a chance to weigh in on the decision.

Contributing: Richard Wolf and David Jackson

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ruth Bader Ginsburg: What we know about replacing her on Supreme Court