Will La Niña bring snow to Myrtle Beach, SC this winter? Here’s the latest forecast

The Myrtle Beach area is set for a warmer, drier winter than usual this year, influenced by a possible La Niña.

The climate phenomena is characterized by cooler water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific that push a global air current known as the jet stream north. This causes warmer, drier weather in the American South and cooler, wetter weather in the American North.

How does La Nina impact South Carolina?

“During La Niña, there isn’t as much thunderstorm activity across the equatorial Pacific, so what that tends to do is the storm track across the United States is typically farther north, and that leaves the Carolinas usually above normal temperatures with less chances of rainfall,” said Steven Pfaff, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 60% chance La Niña will emerge before December. The weather pattern typically occurs every three to five years and lasts roughly one to three years.

However, NOAA predicts this La Nina cycle will be short and weak, lasting until sometime between January and March next year.

Will it snow?

While the Myrtle Beach area doesn’t typically experience much snow with La Nina, it’s always a possibility.

“We can’t entirely rule it out,” said Pfaff. “I mean, if you get the cold air aligned with any chance of moisture that comes by, we might have to deal with an event.”

According to seasonal outlooks from NWS, northeastern South Carolina has a 50 to 60% chance of having above-normal temperatures and a 40 to 50% chance of having below-normal precipitation from December through January.

These outlooks predict climatological trends through the winter season, but the Grand Strand could still see individual weather patterns that don’t fall into those trends, Pfaff said.

“Below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures doesn’t mean it’s going to be hot … it doesn’t mean we’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean we’re not going to have nor’easters or rain and things like that,” Pfaff said. “But overall, the big picture is what we’re talking about over a three month period.”

The NOAA outlooks also don’t predict temperatures or amounts of precipitation, they offer information about what to expect relative to other years.

According to NWS records, the average temperature for South Carolina is 49.6 degrees in December, 46.2 degrees in January and 48.9 degrees in February. If the state has a winter with above-normal temperatures, that could mean average temperatures as low as 50 degrees.

Drought conditions

While La Niña and current predictions suggest the Myrtle Beach area will have a drier winter, Georgetown County and part of Horry County are already experiencing abnormally dry conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“There’s a potential for this drought area to expand and hopefully not intensify. With a lack of rainfall, that can lead to potential increase for wildfire activity,” Pfaff said.

If vegetation in South Carolina dries out too much, it could make for a more dangerous wildfire season in the spring and summer. Starting in the spring, a drought could also adversely impact agriculture.

“We’re seeing it starting to develop. We know the outlook is for not much in the way of support for rainfall,” Pfaff said. “That’s something we need to be concerned with as we head through winter towards spring.”