Last-minute uncertainty with white Christmas potential in Ontario

Digital Writers
·3 min read
Last-minute uncertainty with white Christmas potential in Ontario
Last-minute uncertainty with white Christmas potential in Ontario

While much of the country will definitively see a white or green Christmas, southern Ontario still remains uncertain. While a late-week, low-pressure system will trek in with rain and snow, the timing and impacts are still not set in stone so it could be a last-minute call to make. Milder air ahead of the low will allow for precipitation to begin as rain in southern Ontario during the day Christmas Eve, but by Christmas Day morning, it is likely to fall as snow due to plunging temperatures. More on why we're looking at a "last minute" shot at a white Christmas, below.


  • Changeable pattern during the week, with low to bring in snow, rain Christmas Eve/Day, depending on location

  • Rain moves in Wednesday night, becomes widespread during the day on Christmas Eve

  • Precipitation switches to snow on Christmas Day, but timing, accumulations still uncertain

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With days until Christmas, whether it will be green or white will come down to the very last minute in southern Ontario. The definition of a white Christmas means having at least two cm of snow on the ground.

A Pacific low tracking through Western Canada Monday and Tuesdaywill be boosted by a deep upper trough as it moves into the Great Lakes region for Christmas Eve and Day.

Wednesday night will see warmer air and rain pushing into the northern and eastern shores of Georgian Bay and southwestern Ontario. Widespread rain will then trek across southern and eastern Ontario by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday evening will see rain switching over to snow across central and southwestern Ontario, including the GTA. Rain continues in eastern areas.


On Christmas morning, rain will switch to snow for the Ottawa area, while scattered flurries will fall across the GTA and light snow will impact cottage country, southern Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Friday evening will see lake-effect snow bands develop off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.

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Because we're still several days away, there is still uncertainty with the timing and accumulations. There is higher confidence in the fact that there will be a system impacting the region.

"This has the potential to bring a period of significant snow to parts of the region during Christmas Eve and into early Christmas Day, but it is still much too early to have confidence in who will see enough snow to pull off the buzzer beater with snow just in time for Christmas," says Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham.


Beyond, the colder temperatures will hang on through Boxing Day, but then trend milder for the final days of December.

Check back as we continue the monitor the forecast for a potential white Christmas in the coming days.