In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities
Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn’t implausible for plenty of Americans, that’s rapidly changing in many places.
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To help you determine your next real estate move, GOBankingRates identified the metro areas that are outpacing the national average for growth. This will help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other cities with more affordable housing.
Knoxville, Tennessee
June 2023 home value: $326,331
One-year projected growth rate: 9.8%
Knoxville, Tennessee sits at the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and is a diverse city known for celebrating its many different ethnicities in festivals and cultural events. This city of over 192,000 people is also home to the University of Tennessee and the Knoxville Ice Bears professional hockey team.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $431,981
U.S. median projected home value: $419,599
Difference in value: $12,382
2033 projected home value: $831,153
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Athens, Georgia
June 2023 home value: $338,432
One-year projected growth rate: 9%
Athens is a vibrant college town known for its artistic and musical heritage. Home to the University of Georgia, it boasts a dynamic music scene that birthed famous bands like R.E.M. and the B-52s. With its blend of southern charm, historic architecture and cultural diversity, Athens remains a unique destination that attracts both students and visitors alike.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $402,091
U.S. median projected home value: $394,730
Difference in value: $7,361
2033 projected home value: $801,191
Daphne, Alabama
June 2023 home value: $344,919
One-year projected growth rate: 8.5%
Daphne is a picturesque city located on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay. With its stunning waterfront views and warm climate, it offers a desirable coastal lifestyle. The city balances its rich history with modern amenities, evident in its charming downtown area and thriving community events.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $374,237
U.S. median projected home value: $371,336
Difference in value: $2,901
2033 projected home value: $779,857
Fayetteville, Arkansas
June 2023 home value: $327,207
One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%
Fayetteville is home to the University of Arkansas. Bill and Hillary Clinton called Fayetteville home before he was elected the state’s governor, and then president of the United States, and the home they lived in is now a museum preserving memories of their time in the city.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $420,382
U.S. median projected home value: $419,599
Difference in value: $783
2033 projected home value: $753,791
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Tucson, Arizona
June 2023 home value: $349,326
One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%
Tucson is an hour north of the border with Mexico, and it lays claim to some of the best Mexican food in the U.S. Start on 12th Avenue in the city to begin your tour of what is called The Best 23 Miles of Mexican food.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $375,875
U.S. median projected home value: $371,336
Difference in value: $4,539
2033 projected home value: $726,698
Columbia, Missouri
June 2023 home value: $282,941
One-year projected growth rate: 9.7%
Columbia is the fourth most-populous and fastest-growing city in the state. With an estimated 126,254 residents and the home of the University of Missouri, it sits just outside of St. Louis. Residents have access to the famous barbecue, music and historical sites with just a quick drive on the highway.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $540,932
U.S. median projected home value: $535,756
Difference in value: $5,176
2033 projected home value: $714,106
Savannah, Georgia
June 2023 home value: $312,007
One-year projected growth rate: 8.6%
Savannah’s history dates to 1733, and it became the first city in the 13th colony — Georgia — which was named for King George II of England. Today, visitors are drawn by its period architecture, art and boutiques.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $511,851
U.S. median projected home value: $504,004
Difference in value: $7,847
2033 projected home value: $711,972
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Panama City, Florida
June 2023 home value: $333,760
One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%
Panama City is a gorgeous beach destination along the Gulf of Mexico, known for its powdery white sands and emerald waters. Its famous Panama City Beach stretches along the coastline, drawing tourists with its inviting shoreline and family-friendly atmosphere. The area also features attractions like Shipwreck Island Waterpark and St. Andrews State Park, providing diverse options for outdoor enthusiasts.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2027
Projected home value: $447,387
U.S. median projected home value: $446,033
Difference in value: $1,354
2033 projected home value: $694,316
Huntsville, Alabama
June 2023 home value: $308,155
One-year projected growth rate: 8.3%
The city is named after John Hunt, who settled there in 1805. It grew rapidly from 2010 to 2020 — from 180,000 to 215,000 people — and is a bustling area for the technology, space and defense industries. NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command are located in Huntsville.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $538,478
U.S. median projected home value: $535,756
Difference in value: $2,722
2033 projected home value: $683,995
Albuquerque, New Mexico
June 2023 home value: $324,491
One-year projected growth rate: 7.4%
About 565,000 people live in Albuquerque, and what does it mean if one of them asks you, “Red or green?” You’re being asked whether you want red or green chiles in your New Mexican fare. Reply with “Christmas” if you want both.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2031
Projected home value: $574,430
U.S. median projected home value: $569,509
Difference in value: $4,921
2033 projected home value: $662,591
Dover, Delaware
June 2023 home value: $333,032
One-year projected growth rate: 7.1%
Dover is the capital city of the state and holds a rich historical significance as one of the oldest continuously inhabited settlements in the United States. It is home to the historic Green, a public square that has witnessed important events throughout American history. Dover is also renowned for hosting the Dover International Speedway, a NASCAR racing track that attracts fans from around the country.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $538,285
U.S. median projected home value: $535,756
Difference in value: $2,529
2033 projected home value: $661,273
Deltona, Florida
June 2023 home value: $342,193
One-year projected growth rate: 6.6%
Deltona is a suburban city located in the central part of the state. It is known for its tranquil residential neighborhoods and abundant natural beauty, including numerous lakes and parks. The city’s strategic location between Daytona Beach and Orlando provides residents with easy access to both coastal and urban attractions.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2031
Projected home value: $570,596
U.S. median projected home value: $569,509
Difference in value: $1,087
2033 projected home value: $648,400
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Yakima, Washington
June 2023 home value: $334,737
One-year projected growth rate: 6.8%
Located in the Yakima Valley, the city is known for its agricultural significance and stunning natural surroundings. The region is famous for producing a variety of fruits, particularly apples, and is considered a vital part of the state’s agricultural industry. With the Yakima River meandering through the valley, the area offers opportunities for outdoor activities like fishing, hiking and camping.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2033
Projected home value: $646,273
U.S. median projected home value: $646,527
Difference in value: $2,746
2033 projected home value: $646,273
Keep reading to see other places where prices are becoming unaffordable.
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Jake Arky contributed to the reporting for this article.
Methodology: GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth and decline over 10 years using Zillow’s June 2023-24 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of the 250 largest metros in the U.S. AND the metros in the top 250 that currently have home prices below the national median, with those rising above the national average in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “a place you could no longer afford.” For each metro over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the metro will become a “place you could no longer afford”; (2) projected home value for that year; and (3) US average projected home value for that year. NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on August 8, 2023.
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