Liberal Charles Sousa wins federal byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore, CBC News projects

Early results from a Greater Toronto Area byelection Monday suggested an imminent return to government for former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa — this time as a federal member of Parliament.

Sousa arrived at a campaign event in Mississauga and declared himself the winner on Monday night to cheers from a crowd of more than a hundred supporters, as results were still trickling in.

"As your voice in Ottawa, I want you to know that I am here to provide support, to work with you and the community, and to be pragmatic at finding the right solutions to those challenges that we face," Sousa said during a speech.

By Tuesday morning, with 233 of 234 polls reporting, Sousa had secured 51.2 per cent of the vote.

His Conservative opponent, Ron Chhinzer — a gang prevention expert and member of the Peel Regional Police Service — came away with 37.3 per cent. New Democrat Julia Kole secured 4.9 per cent of the vote, while the Green Party was not far behind the NDP with 3.2 per cent. The People's Party of Canada earned the support of 1.2 per cent of votes cast.

The CBC News decision desk projected Monday night that Sousa was on track to secure the seat.

In a post on Twitter, Chhinzer congratulated Sousa on his win and said running in the election taught him a new respect and appreciation for being Canadian.

"To the Mississauga-Lakeshore community, I look forward to serving and protecting you on the frontlines as I return to policing," he wrote.

The Liberal party also declared victory late Monday, saying in a news release that this leaves it "in a strengthened position" at the end of 2022.

If that dramatic lead held as the remainder of votes were counted, it would be a negative sign for new Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, said Philippe Fournier, the creator of 338Canada, a statistical model of electoral projections based on polling, demographics and elections history.

Low voter turnout, results suggest

Reacting to the early results, Fournier noted that the byelection appeared to have low turnout. The first 34 per cent of votes counted only represented about five per cent of registered voters.

Fournier said such a low number could be a sign of either "apathy or general satisfaction." Both are good signs for the incumbents. By Tuesday morning, Elections Canada figures showed the turnout was about 26 per cent.

He suggested that if Liberals retained a significant lead, that would mean that Poilievre was "doing worse" than his two immediate predecessors, Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer.

Though Fournier warned against reading too much into any byelection result, the Liberals said the win was an indictment of Poilievre.

"Tonight, voters in Mississauga-Lakeshore rejected the reckless policies of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives," the party's national director, Azam Ishmael, said in a statement.

Sousa campaign supported by notable Liberals

During a campaign that saw big-name Liberals dropping by the Mississauga-Lakeshore riding and federal ministers manning the phones, Sousa sold himself as an experienced decision-maker able to work with opponents across the aisle.

The former banker had lost his seat in the 2018 election that saw the provincial Liberals fall from the governing party to one without official status in the legislature.

He thanked those who helped him on the campaign during his victory speech Monday evening, saying he couldn't have done it alone. Transport Minister Omar Alghabra and Liberal MP Iqra Khalid were both by his side.

At an event for Sousa on Monday, campaign volunteer Patti Jannetta called him a visionary and said she had heard a lot of positivity from voters.

"I am feeling really confident because I think people are confident in him," she said at the Oasis Convention Centre shortly before polls closed.

As dozens of supporters waited for the results to trickle in, they sat around tables chatting over loud blues music played by a live band, some sipping on beer or wine. Later, the crowd swelled to well over 100 and the atmosphere became more celebratory as Sousa's lead held.

First byelection with Poilievre as Tory leader

A more modest Liberal win would simply have been "business as usual," Fournier said before the vote. However, it would have been a very different story had the Conservative Party managed an upset.

At first glance, Monday's federal byelection in a coveted Greater Toronto Area riding had seemed like a potential nail-biter.

It was the first contest under the Conservative leadership of Poilievre, in an area of the country crucial to his party's chances of success in future federal elections.

And the contest, in a district the Tories won when Stephen Harper earned a majority mandate, came seven years into the tenure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government is on its second minority stint in Parliament.

As Tories dampened expectations for their performance in Mississauga-Lakeshore, Poilievre was scarcely visible, though he tweeted his support for Chhinzer, on Monday afternoon.

WATCH | Tory leader did not make campaign stop in Mississauga-Lakeshore riding:

Fournier said Conservatives will need to learn how to win again in the regions outside Toronto if Poilievre wants a shot at becoming prime minister.

"When you look at the riding map, the Conservatives have maxed out in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta. They could win maybe a handful more in Atlantic provinces, maybe two, three more in Quebec, maybe two, three more in B.C.," he said.

"That doesn't give you victory. They have to win more in Ontario. Where are the potential gains for the Conservatives? It's into the Mississaugas and the Scarboroughs."

The byelection was announced after Sven Spengemann, the former Liberal MP, announced earlier this year that he would resign to pursue a new job at the United Nations.

Final results in Monday's contest will not be tabulated until local special ballots are added to the tally, beginning on Wednesday.