Mail-in ballot concerns a week from election day
Welcome to today’s US election briefing for Australia.
With a record number of early votes already in – more than 70 million – how mail-in ballots are cast and counted has become one of the most fiercely fought aspects of this campaign.
Democrats began to scramble on Tuesday to tell voters not to rely on the US postal service to deliver their ballots on time, and to instead drop them off by hand.
With coronavirus surging across the US, more than 44.6 million people have voted by mail so far and it’s causing consternation within Republican ranks as early voting is more favoured by registered Democrats than registered Republicans.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump, who has previously sowed misinformation about widespread mail-in ballot fraud, seemed to advocate for counting of mail ballots to stop on election night: “it would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on November 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don’t believe that’s by our laws”.
Republicans are ramping up efforts to thwart counting mail-in ballots after election day in a number of states, even if the ballots were posted on or before 3 November. The supreme court upheld that push in Wisconsin yesterday and is due to hear cases in two more battleground states before the election. That’s the same supreme court Trump just appointed his third justice to, boosting the conservative majority. You can read our story on this here.
Of course, dropping off your mail-in ballot in person, as Democrats are now urging people to do, is easier said than done in some states. In Texas, for example, the state supreme court just upheld an order from the Republican governor to limit drop-off locations to one per county – in a state of 29 million people.
All the uncertainties around postal voting and counting are another reason why I (and many others) am so sceptical of the polls being able to predict the outcome of the election. There is so much still in play.
The big stories
A surge in new Covid cases in the midwest continues, as Trump plans multiple rallies in the region. New daily cases in Michigan have more than doubled in the last week, while Nebraska has one of the highest rates of test positivity in the nation at 21.5% over the last week, two states where the president is holding big events.
Infections are also skyrocketing in Texas, a week after Trump said a big spike in the state was “now gone”. But El Paso is experiencing its worst surge, bringing in a curfew, new mask rules and other measures to deal with the health crisis.
Trans Americans are among millions who could lose their access to healthcare if the supreme court sides with a cohort of Republican state attorneys general seeking to have the Affordable Care Act tossed out. This case is due the day after the election.
A fascinating contest is underway in Maricopa county in the battleground state of Arizona – thanks to disaffected Republicans and demographic changes in the formerly white, conservative bastion. Read the full story here.
Melania Trump returned to the campaign trail on Tuesday afternoon, a month after her positive test for coronavirus, thanking supporters for their love.
Quote of the day
It was our people that helped her out with her problem … And we’ll wait to see if it is a problem, right? People are entitled to say, ‘Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t.’”
Speaking at a rally on Tuesday, Trump casts doubt on the plot to kidnap Michigan’s Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer. The FBI has charged 14 people, several of whom had ties to a rightwing militia group, in connection to the alleged plot.
Election views
“It’s not only Roe v Wade that’s on the line under a Barrett court. Paid leave, affordable childcare, equal pay, voting rights, racial justice, and LGBTQ+ equality are in jeopardy,” writes Cecile Richards. Women “should vote like our lives depend on it, because they do”.
Video of the day
Barack Obama has emerged as Biden’s most pugnacious surrogate, using stump speeches this week to skewer the president. Here he is at a drive-in rally in Orlando, Florida, on Tuesday (and you can read the full story here).
Around the web
Trump has used his position as president to direct at least $8.1m from US taxpayers and from his political supporters into his own businesses, a major Washington Post investigation has found, through methods like hosting world leaders at his hotels then billing for the costs.
Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan governor, has written a piece for the Atlantic about the alleged plot to kidnap her, and how the president’s rhetoric continues to make her and others unsafe.
This is a great episode of the NYT’s The Field podcast on the divided Latino vote in Arizona. While Democrats are favoured with this group, Trump’s economic and religious messages, coupled with online disinformation such as the QAnon conspiracy theory, are peeling voters away.
What the numbers say: 500,000
The number of new Covid cases across the US in the past week, according to the NYT, marking a new record. Comes despite the president on Tuesday claiming “ending the pandemic” was among his achievements.
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