Data releases this week will give markets further indications of how fast economies around the world are faring from the coronavirus, with one key word in mind: recovery.
While FX traders will be digesting Brexit developments which saw the pound on unsteady footing last week, purveyors of travel and leisure stocks will be watching to see whether a second UK lockdown could be on the cards.
Over in the US, EIA crude oil inventory data will give the latest read on the energy sector, after its COVID-19 knock back.
Weekend stories to watch for developments on:
Full-year earnings: Close Brothers (CBG.L)
Trading update: Tui (TUI.L)
UK — some data, some policy
Last week, news hit that group of scientists had recommended the government implement a second, two-week lockdown during October amid rising fears of a punishing second wave of the coronavirus.
Meanwhile, the Internal Market Bill is still awaiting approval by the House of Lords, despite Johnson’s agreement of a compromise with rebel members of the Conservative Party.
In lieu of its annual conference, the UK opposition Labour party is hosting an event called Connected from Sunday 19 to 22 September. Leader Keir Starmer’s key note is on Tuesday.
Key data to watch:
Wednesday: 9.30am – UK manufacturing & services PMI (September, flash)
European recovery watch
All eyes will be on European data to gauge the extent of its recovery, with PMIs across the bloc and consumer confidence data for the eurozone.
Leaders from the EU will also meet in person on Thursday to discuss industrial strategy in the aftermath of the coronavirus, as well as tensions with Turkey and Russia.
Relations with China and the state of Brexit will also be on the slate.
“August surveys showed signs of a significant slowdown, which makes sense after the fast recovery of the reopening months. September data should provide some guidance on whether the momentum has slowed further or whether it has stabilised,” say analysts at ING.
Germany’s IFO index update will give investors a feel as to how Europe’s biggest economy is faring.
Key data to watch:
Monday: Rightmove House Price Index
Tuesday: 3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September, flash)
Wednesday: 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October)
8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (September, flash)
Thursday: 9am – German IFO index (September)
US jobs, PMIs and oil inventories
PMIs continue to pour in, as US’s flash numbers for September are published on Wednesday.
Jobless claims and existing home sales will also give a measure as to the temperature of the economy.
In central bank-related news, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will testify to the House’s select subcommittee to the coronavirus crisis about the bank’s response.
Markets will also be keeping a close eye on tech stocks since their recent waver.
Key data to watch
Monday: 1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (August)
Tuesday: 3pm – US existing home sales (August)
Wednesday: 2.45pm – US manufacturing & services PMI (September, flash)
3.30pm – US: EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 18 September)
Thursday: 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 19 September)
3pm – US new home sales (August)
Friday: 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (August)