How might China react to the UK's tough stance on Huawei and Hong Kong?

China has repeatedly threatened to retaliate as diplomatic ties with the UK continue to worsen. The bilateral relationship first hit rocky waters in June when Boris Johnson offered citizenship to up to three million people from Hong Kong fleeing tough new security laws.

Then, the British Government last week reversed its decision on Huawei, banning the Chinese telecoms firm from playing a role in building the country’s 5G networks. British television regulator Ofcom has also recently found that Chinese state broadcaster CGTN violated broadcasting rules; more investigations are pending and sanctions are expected.

Relations are set to decline further as Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has signalled the UK will suspend its extradition treaty with Hong Kong. The concern is that Beijing will try to claw back Hong Kong people seeking refuge in Britain, such as pro-democracy activist Nathan Law.

The Chinese government has not hinted what measures are being considered, but ongoing diplomatic spats with British allies including the US, Australia and Canada reveal a wide-ranging playbook.

A key factor is how quickly China might be willing to allow relations with the UK to deteriorate.

In the US, Canada and Australia, political elements have been critical of China for several years, while the UK is only now starting to push back against China's ambitions, said Kitty Smyth, the founder of Jingpinou, a UK consultancy specialising in China.

Therefore, China may be "more likely to want to build on those pockets of support, rather than erode all relationships with the UK entirely", she added.

Still, some level of reprisal is likely to take place as Beijing's swagger has grown with its new "wolf warrior" style of diplomacy, taking a much harder line in defiance of what it views as the West trying to diminish its place on the world stage.

Economic

China often turns to economic pressure, betting that capitalist Western societies will think twice about forgoing access to lucrative opportunities with the world's second-largest economy.

Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have worsened this year after Australia was among a coalition of countries calling for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. Australia was also the first country to ban Huawei from its 5G networks, doing so in 2018.

In May, Beijing imposed a staggering 80 per cent, five-year tariff on Australian barley, citing anti-dumping allegations. It also slapped tariffs and import bans on Australian beef.

Similarly, as relations between Beijing and Ottawa decayed after the Huawei CFO, Meng Wanzhou, was arrested during a Vancouver layover in 2017, Canadian canola shipments suddenly began stalling in long Chinese customs inspections.

China claimed there were "harmful organisms" in the shipments and, to this day, the import licenses for Canada's two largest canola exporters remain suspended.

Translated to the UK, it is possible Beijing could take a tougher stance on post-Brexit trade talks – if it even agrees to sit at the negotiating table. This could escalate into a full-blown, tit-for-tat trade war, with major British exports, such as automobiles, getting caught in the middle.

UK firms in China – which span major brands such as Burberry and Land Rover as well as small businesses in tech, tourism and education – could begin facing greater pressure.

Companies may find themselves mired in bureaucracy and red tape, or see their operations devastated if Beijing encouraged its 1.4 billion people to boycott British brands.

Conglomerate Lotte Group, for example, was forced to retreat from China due to a state-encouraged backlash against South Korean brands following the 2017 installation of a US anti-missile defence system on land owned by the firm. At the time, Beijing argued that the defence equipment would increase American spying capabilities into China.

China could also dissuade people from visiting or studying in the UK, important lifelines for the education and tourism sectors. There are also ripple effects – wealthy Chinese often purchase property for their children to live in while studying abroad, boosting property markets.

A travel advisory recently issued by Beijing, warning citizens against travelling to Australia due to alleged discrimination, could have a chilling effect. Tourists from China have been Australia's largest source of international visitors for years, surpassing people from New Zealand in 2017.

Human rights

China has also pressured other nations by targeting their citizens on Chinese soil, at times committing human rights violations.

British citizens studying, living and working in China – or other foreigners employed by UK firms – could find themselves facing trumped-up accusations.

Shortly after Canada arrested Ms Meng, China arrested two Canadian citizens, former diplomat Michael Kovrig and consultant Michael Spavor. The two have been detained in difficult conditions, barred from turning the lights off to sleep, interrogated frequently and denied access to a lawyer.

In June, they were charged with alleged spying and continue to be held largely incommunicado. Many advocacy groups have stressed that Mr Kovrig and Mr Spavor are being arbitrarily detained.

One Canadian and one Australian were given death sentences for alleged drug smuggling as tensions peaked.

While a separate issue from Huawei, bilateral tensions are also being aggravated by the British regulator Ofcom investigating the Chinese state broadcaster CGTN.

British media outlets could begin getting squeezed out of China if Beijing chooses to retaliate in a different area as part of a broader response to the UK.

Since May last year, 18 foreign journalists have been expelled from the country – primarily American journalists at US outlets whose coverage China did not like, in response to Washington limiting the activities and visas granted to Chinese state media outlets.

Press freedom is also at risk, as British media outlets could begin getting squeezed out of China – a direct response to ongoing Ofcom investigations against Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. Beijing often justifies retaliatory actions as “reciprocal.”

Since May last year, 18 foreign journalists have been expelled from China – primarily American journalists at US outlets whose coverage the government did not like, in response to Washington limiting the activities and visas granted to Chinese state media outlets.

China has also routinely failed to renew visas for foreign journalists as punishment for stories it doesn’t find favourable, forcing them out of the country.

Diplomatic

Visas can also be weaponised against diplomats, with the Chinese government stalling on approvals for the UK’s mission to China.

The green light for Elizabeth Ward, the next Australian consul-general in Hong Kong, for instance, has reportedly been delayed as tensions worsened between Beijing and Canberra.  An acting consul-general has been in place in Hong Kong since late February.

A new British ambassador to China, Caroline Wilson, is due to start in September. The UK maintains an embassy in Beijing and five consulates, including one in Hong Kong.  The Foreign Office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment regarding Ms Wilson’s status.

In the long run, the UK could face more opposition from China in international organisations – at the UN Security Council, the World Trade Organisation, the World Health Organisation and others.

China, for instance, often votes with Russia and against the US, and has reportedly inked a deal with Tehran spanning energy, military and technology – directly flouting US efforts to squeeze Iran with sanctions.