MLB Betting: Top long-shot picks for 2023 Cy Young awards
The following are hardly Cy Young favorites but will provide more bang for your buck if you are looking to bet on 2023 MLB futures. Good luck with your wagers!
You can find more of my 2023 futures bets here.
All betting odds courtesy of BetMGM
American League Cy Young
Triston McKenzie 35/1
McKenzie posted a 31:1 K:BB ratio over his final four starts last year and is a dark horse Cy Young candidate in 2023. The tall righty is equally effective against left-handers and should benefit from new catcher Mike Zunino’s strong defense/framing. McKenzie had a historical rookie season and built his innings up to 190+ last year. He's more like Triston McKenCY in 2023.
Brady Singer 66/1
Notice how Singer is listed among all the 200/1 pitchers, indicating someone put some sharp money on him already. Singer was a remarkably similar pitcher to last year’s NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara — only, Singer’s younger and with better peripherals. Singer was especially dominant during the second half and should continue to get better with further development of his changeup. Team context certainly does Singer no favors, but at least Kauffman Stadium has decreased homers by 18% over the last three seasons, and recording wins wasn’t a problem last year.
If you really want to get wild, I also don’t hate Andrew Heaney at 125/1. The flyball pitcher recorded a 32.9 K-BB% on the road last season — Shohei Ohtani led all starters with a 26.5 K-BB% — and will be leaving a park that increased home runs to RHB an MLB-high 44% over the last three seasons.
National League Cy Young
Dustin May 100/1
I despise all Dodgers as much as anyone else, but it’s absurd 60+ pitchers have better odds than May to win the Cy Young Award in 2023, including Cal Quantrill and Martín Pérez. May struggled with command as most pitchers do when returning from Tommy John but was sneaky good last season. He should be even better now, another six months removed from surgery. The NL is admittedly loaded with SPs — but with many similar options up top, May sticks out as one of the more enticing long-shot bets of 2023; he was recording a 31.2 K-BB% in 2021 before the injury.
May’s workload will be somewhat limited, but many questioned Corbin Burnes’ ceiling two years ago, when he proceeded to win the Cy Young with a dominant 165 innings. Tony Gonsolin won 16 games over just 130.1 innings last season with the help of LA’s run support and defense. It’s probably not a coincidence the Dodgers had three of the 10 lowest BABIPs among starters last season if Gonsolin qualified. Put differently, Gonsolin finished with the fifth-most wins in baseball last year despite pitching the 89th-most innings and sporting a K-rate outside the top-25 thanks to playing for the Dodgers.
If you prefer May at 60/1 to record the most wins, then that’s certainly a viable alternative. But a pitcher with some of the best stuff in baseball who’s finally healthy and in an extraordinary situation shouldn’t have such extreme odds in either bet.