This is the most expensive political race in Idaho. Will a Democrat keep his seat?

Just over a week before the election, District 15 Republican senate candidate Codi Galloway posted a video of herself in a neighborhood in her district, knocking doors with Senate Majority Leader Kelly Anthon, R-Burley. Sen. Rick Just’s Republican challenger has been active on social media, posting photos of herself campaigning and videos introducing herself to voters.

“We need you desperately in the Idaho Senate,” the Majority Leader said to the camera.

Anthon’s personal participation in Galloway’s campaign highlights the high-profile stakes of the state senate race in District 15, one of the rare purple districts in Idaho’s legislative races. The battle has become the most expensive general election race in the state, with close to a quarter of a million dollars raised between the two candidates and nearly $90,000 spent by outside groups.

“The influence of out-of-state dark money buying elections is the as-yet untold story of the election,” Just told the Idaho Statesman by email. “It has meant the defeat of many moderate Republicans in the primary. Now, they are focusing on one or two Democrats that they would like to pick off.”

The race could be pivotal to the makeup of the Senate for the next two years. If Just loses, Republicans will gain a seat in the body where far-right and more moderate Republicans are constantly vying for control.

The spending from outside groups highlights potential wedge issues for voters: The biggest spender has been the Idaho Federation for Children PAC, or political action committee, which has invested more than $53,000 either opposing Just or supporting Galloway through mailers and digital advertisements. Despite its name, the group is based in Columbia, Maryland, and is affiliated with the Texas-based American Federation for Children, which advocates for school choice. Sometimes called school vouchers, the proposals involve directing state funds toward children who attend private schools — a contentious issue in the Legislature in recent years. The American Federation for Children was the biggest spender in this year’s Republican primary, according to previous Statesman reporting.

Another PAC, run by anti-abortion lobbying group Idaho Chooses Life, has spent close to $3,000 sending mailers opposing Just, who has been endorsed by the abortion rights advocate Planned Parenthood.

The biggest outside spenders supporting Just include Planned Parenthood, the Idaho Democratic Party, and groups called Idaho Liberty Defense, Liberty Alliance and Accountable Idaho. They have spent more than $32,000 supporting him or opposing Galloway.

Liberty Alliance, Accountable Idaho and Idaho Liberty Defense are run by Arlethea Lienhart-Minnick, a Boise Democrat. Accountable Idaho received a $350,000 donation from the Idaho Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, while Liberty Alliance has pulled in $25,000 from the Way Back PAC, a Mountain West group that advocates for left-leaning candidates, and Sen. Linda Wright Hartgen, R-Twin Falls, a moderate Republican who lost her primary reelection bid in May. Idaho Liberty Defense has received large donations from Planned Parenthood’s Idaho PAC ($12,000) and a $56,500 transfer from Accountable Idaho.

The spending from outside groups has led to tension between the two candidates.

One mailer, paid for by Liberty Alliance, accuses Galloway of causing “runaway property taxes” and “record-high inflation” during her one term in the Idaho House from 2021-2023.

Just told the Statesman’s editorial board, which is separate from the newsroom, that he doesn’t “like misrepresentations on my behalf.”

“I suppose you could ding her because she did nothing during her term about property taxes and inflation, but that’s a bit disingenuous,” he said, pointing out that a “freshman legislator” likely wouldn’t be able to take on an issue like property taxes.

Meanwhile, Galloway’s campaign has spread false claims about Just’s record. In a postcard paid for by her campaign, the candidate falsely accused Just of supporting “giving illegal aliens the right to vote.” Just had voted against amending the Idaho Constitution to reinforce prohibitions on non-citizens voting. Yet it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in Idaho’s elections, and it is a violation of federal law for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. Former Idaho Secretary of State Ben Ysursa told the Statesman that the change would have no effect on the illegality of non-citizens voting. (The amendment is also before voters on this year’s ballot.)

In an email to the Statesman, Galloway repeated her claim, saying there is a “loophole” in the state constitution that “allows anyone to vote ‘if registered by law.’ ” (The sentence in the Constitution reads: “Every male or female citizen of the United States … if registered as provided by law, is a qualified elector.”)

In a post on his website, Just accused Galloway’s noncitizen voting claims of being racist dog whistles against him.

“I find it despicable,” he said by email.

“If I thought sour grapes, Facebook rants, and tantrums won elections, maybe I would resort to that, too,” Galloway said. “But the bottom line is Idaho deserves someone tough enough to take a few hits and still stand up for truth. Rather than complain about the mudslinging, I will continue to talk about what matters to voters.”

One advertisement against Just, paid for by the American Federation for Children, accuses him of supporting “radical unions,” which it said — without evidence — support “open borders.”

Galloway said that she found negative mailing sent out against her in the last election was hard to stomach, and pointed out that she does not control the ads made by outside groups.

Democrat has fundraising edge

Just has significantly out-raised Galloway, bringing in $141,431 to Galloway’s $100,670 as of Thursday.

The Boise Democrat has brought in donations from Democratic lawmakers, including the maximum $1,000 from Boise Reps. Ilana Rubel and Steve Berch, Sen. Melissa Wintrow, and the District 15 Democratic Party. Just received $1,000 each from the Idaho Democratic Leadership Campaign Committee, Esto Perpetua PAC, the Idaho Families PAC, the Idaho Hospital Association PAC, and $500 from Idaho Power, the public utility.

The Idaho Families PAC is run by charter school lobbyist Emily McClure, while Esto Perpetua is listed under Boise attorney Maggie Mallea.

Galloway has brought in maximum $1,000 donations from groups like the Idaho Farm Bureau and Idaho Chooses Life, as well as sitting legislators: Reps. Joe Palmer, R-Meridian; Jordan Redman, R-Coeur d’Alene; Josh Tanner, R-Eagle, and Chuck Winder, R-Boise. She has also brought in $1,000 from the Idaho Land Fund, a major Republican donor.

Has District 15 swung towards Democrats?

Historically, Republicans have dominated the district that covers Boise neighborhoods west of North Maple Grove Road to the border with Meridian.

But the tide began to turn in Democrats’ favor in 2018. That year, Democrat Steve Berch — who had lost his bids for a House seat in the district from 2012 through 2016, though each time by narrower margins — and another Democrat, Jake Ellis, swept the two House races. In the Senate, incumbent Republican Sen. Fred Martin kept his seat by six votes.

Then in 2020, Galloway ran and defeated Ellis, while Berch retained his House seat. In the Senate race, the first in which Just ran, he lost to Martin by more than 1,300 votes. Two years later, Galloway decided to run for Senate, and Just beat her by 327 votes. A Constitution Party candidate, Sarah Clendenon, accrued 413 votes.

Berch has raised the most of any candidate in Idaho this year, bringing in nearly $186,000. The two House races are also expected to be close.

With only days remaining before Election Day, Just said he has mostly stopped knocking on doors. Now he’s focused on digital media and calling voters who might be on the fence, hoping to have conversations with them and talk through issues. He’s also been keeping up with his daily blog, where he posts frequently about Idaho history and trivia.

On Tuesday, Galloway posted on social media that she was sending out postcards and notes to volunteers and voters in the last days before the election.

Just said the District 15 senate race is important to both parties because “if I lose, it means that the hard-right controls the Senate,” referring to the far-right faction of the GOP. “It will be a whole different ball game over there, and that’s why there’s so much interest and so much money pouring into this race.”