NBA bets: Warriors in 6, avoid the Sixers without Embiid

Ariel Epstein takes you through tonight’s NBA playoff games and tells you who to bet on, and why, before explaining why she placed a bet on the Golden State Warriors to finish off the Memphis Grizzlies in six games or less.

Video Transcript

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ARIEL EPSTEIN: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is Friday, May 6, 2022. I'm your betting guide for the NBA's play tonight, Ariel Epstein, aka, The Prop Queen. The NBA playoffs are in full swing and we're looking for ways to make you some money.

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Let's start with game 1. This one is tipping off at 7:00 PM Eastern time, the Miami Heat the one seed taking on the four seed Philadelphia 76ers. These spreads have been around eight ever since the Miami Heat were at home. However, looking over to the Philly side, I have no interest in taking points. Miami or nothing, as long as the Sixers center, Joel Embiid is out, which is exactly what the report said yesterday. Embiid is not going to play game 3.

Miami has won the last two games by 14 and 16 points. Philly hasn't even put up more than 103 points. They cannot find offensive production without Embiid. There's also no big man underneath to defend against Miami center, Bam Adebayo. He's averaging 23 and 1/2 points and 10 and 1/2 rebounds in the first two games.

Although that's where the stats are looking real cool, I'm looking to the assists for Bam. [INAUDIBLE] is over 3 and 1/2 assists. This number has hit the over in 12 out of the 19 games where Adebayo has played without his guard, Kyle Lowry. Lowry hasn't been playing in this series. He's been banged up. Take those over on assists and take anything Miami, just don't go and bet the Sixers, even though they are at home.

As for the Mavericks, Phoenix game, this is a one seed Phoenix Suns team up against the four seed Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks head back home after going 0 and 2. They've lost 11 straight games now to the Phoenix Suns. It just seems as if the Suns have owned the Mavericks for these last few years. I'm going to keep trying to ride this Mavericks train. I'm going to take Mavericks and the points in the first half.

There's a crazy trend that since 2015 NBA teams that are 0 and 2 that go back home, they're 17 and 7, which means they're just under 71% against the spread as a home dog. I want to go take the first half. I bet the Mavericks at plus 6 and 1/2 in game 2 and it looked really good through the first half, they looked really good halfway through the third quarter. And then in the fourth quarter they just fell apart. I'm just going to look for the Mavericks to have a strong first half at home, back the trend, 71% against the spread as a home dog going in 0 and 2 in the playoffs, giving the Mavericks first half.

Lastly, I'm looking at a game, actually a series where the Golden State Warriors taking on the Memphis Grizzlies. This game's not going to be until Saturday, however, I already bet the Warriors minus 1 and 1/2 at minus 125 to win the series. This means the Warriors have to win the series by game 6 or in game 6. The series is tied at 1. The Warriors have back to back games at home after just playing the first two in Memphis and splitting it there.

The Warriors have the best home record in the NBA. They are 31 and 10 straight up. The Warriors aren't losing at home. That means that they're going to get these back to back games, then they're going to go to Memphis in game 5, then they're back home in game 6. I like the Warriors at minus 1 and 1/2 to win the series minus 125.

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Here's a recap of the NBA pod for the playoffs ahead this coming weekend. I'm taking the Miami Heat. I'm going to be laying the points with them. I like Bam Adebayo, the Heat center over 3 and 1/2 assists, Mavericks on the first half spread. Golden State Warriors at minus 1 and 1/2 on the series price. You can follow me on Twitter over @ArielEpstein and follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook. Bet $10 on any game at MGM and get $200 in free bets added to your account. You don't need to win your bet to receive the promotion.

Go to betmgm.com/yahoovip to get started. New BetMGM customers only. You must be 21 or over. You have to be in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Wyoming only. Terms apply. Please gamble responsibly. Scott Pianowski will be back on Monday with some MLB bets. Until then, good bye and good luck.

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