NC Republicans say they’re not worried about down-ballot boost from VP Kamala Harris
Political experts and Republicans alike don’t think Vice President Kamala Harris’s rise to de facto Democratic presidential nominee will dramatically impact the outcome of down-ballot elections in North Carolina.
Harris has energized Democrats, leading to record fundraising numbers last week, raising $200 million in the first week of her campaign alone according to her campaign and signing up thousands of new volunteers. Some of that money is flowing into North Carolina. Earlier this month the Democratic National Committee announced it spent $1.2 million in N.C. so far for this election as part of its $15 million investment in swing states.
Despite rising enthusiasm from Democrats, N.C. Republican Party Chairman Jason Simmons, is optimistic.
“The fundamental nature of this race doesn’t change, just because they replaced Joe Biden,” Simmons told The Charlotte Observer. “Once the American public and especially North Carolina voters get to know her, Harris is going to be exposed for who she truly is.”
Harris also has energized Republican voters, donors and interest groups, according to Simmons. While there aren’t publicly available numbers, Simmons said anecdotally fundraising is up. He added that the Republican Party’s candidates will keep focusing on “failed Biden policies,” particularly those related to the economy and immigration.
“People are scared of what they see in Kamala Harris and don’t want to see her anywhere near the White House,” Simmons said. “Our grassroots engagement, our volunteer base and our donors are all more engaged.”
That influx of cash and attention on the state from the Harris campaign could help boost turnout by a few percentage points for down-ballot races, according to UNC Charlotte political science professor Eric Heberlig.
However, increased national spending could have drawbacks Heberlig said.
“More national attention because Democrats think they could flip the state the presidential election may make it harder for local candidates like Stein to focus their messaging on local issues,” he said.
State Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson disagrees. He contends that Republicans’ messages won’t appeal to college-educated swing voters in the suburbs.
“Everybody has to run their own campaign because the issue set is different,” Jackson said. “With fundraising, I don’t hear (Republicans) quoting numbers about record sums of money being raised, record numbers of volunteers showing up.... What you see right now is the Republican party that’s a little bit in crisis.”
Down-ballot races in North Carolina
Already, gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has tried linking his opponent, Josh Stein, to Harris’s role in addressing the “root causes” of migration from Central America. Last year, there was a surge in crossings at the southern border, with the highest monthly total of migrants crossing in December according to government statistics.
“Radical liberals Kamala Harris and Josh Stein will turn NC into a sanctuary state for illegal immigrants and defund the police,” Robinson posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The Stein campaign refutes Robinson’s characterization.
“While Mark Robinson makes noise about public safety, Attorney General Josh Stein is actually making North Carolinians safer... pushing for more cops on the beat, working on a bipartisan basis to fight back against fentanyl drug traffickers, and successfully urging Congress to enhance fentanyl detection at the border,” a spokesperson for the Stein campaign told The Observer.
In General Assembly races, even if turnout is up, experts say it will only help a few candidates because of how the districts are drawn. Some legislature races, including Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham’s contest against Democrat Nicole Sidman, are turnout drivers on their own while other districts are not competitive at all. It’s highly unlikely to shift the balance of power in either chamber, Duke University professor Pope “Mac” McCorkle told The Observer.
“For the vast majority of General Assembly districts, changes in turnout probably make very little difference due to partisan gerrymandering,” McCorkle said. “But, for the handful of competitive districts that we have, it could make a difference because the margins are thin. Who exactly it will benefit isn’t clear yet.”
In other races, like the battle between Democrat Jeff Jackson and Republican Dan Bishop for state attorney general, Bishop is trying to brand Jackson as soft on crime by alluding to his support of Harris and her time as California’s attorney general.
“The last thing this state needs is more prosecutors like Jeff Jackson and Vice President Harris,” Bishop told The Observer. “Every day brings new headlines about shootings and other crimes. People want common sense law and order restored, and Jeff Jackson and Kamala Harris won’t deliver that.”
“Dan Bishop has never prosecuted a single case, so it’s strange that he keeps highlighting the fact that Congressman Jackson has actual experience as a prosecutor... He’s going to talk a lot about being pro-law enforcement, but he also said that he wants to “smash the F.B.I. into a million pieces” because he cares more about culture wars than public safety,” a spokesperson for Jackson told The Observer.
Simmons doesn’t expect hyper-local races to focus much on national politics. However, he is confident there will be Republican victories in statewide contests this November.
“You’re going to see up and down the ballot, Republicans engaged in really making sure that the turnout is high. We see it every four years when Trump voters come out in droves,” he said. “We like our chances.”
