NFL betting: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is the most popular MVP bet since the draft

·3 min read

The Philadelphia Eagles made arguably the biggest move of NFL draft weekend when they traded for receiver A.J. Brown.

Bettors thought about Brown's new quarterback.

Since the NFL draft, the most MVP bets at BetMGM have come in on Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has been the Eagles starter since late in his rookie season of 2020. He was up and down as a player last season, and whether he should be the Eagles' starter of the future has been debated many times. But plenty of bettors think he could have an MVP breakout in his third season, at least given his current odds.

Jalen Hurts has long odds to win MVP

Hurts is +4000, or 40-to-1, to win NFL MVP. There is value there, and bettors see it.

Since the draft, 18 percent of bets made on MVP have come in on Hurts. That's a big bump. Even with that rush, Hurts still has just four percent of MVP bets made since odds opened right after the Super Bowl.

There's an argument to be made for Hurts. First, he's a quarterback and we know the history of voters overlooking any other player to give MVP (or rookie of the year, or Super Bowl MVP, or the Heisman Trophy, or comeback player of the year, or ... ) to a quarterback. When you cut down the MVP field to 32 names at the start, it makes things easier.

Then, Hurts put up numbers last year. Fantasy managers know that. It wasn't always pretty but Hurts would usually end up with a decent stat line. His 3,144 passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns don't jump off the page but he had 784 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Hurts also didn't have a receiver like Brown to work with. Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL and it's surprising that the Tennessee Titans traded him at a prime age. DeVonta Smith, last year's first-round pick by Philadelphia, had a solid rookie season and he'll be better in year two, especially with Brown taking a lot of defensive attention. It wouldn't be a surprise if Hurts had a huge jump in passing stats with upgraded receivers. The Eagles' passing game shouldn't be that bad.

The Eagles will need to make the playoffs for Hurts to have a chance. Only two MVPs have ever come from non-playoff teams and the last instance was 1973. Philadelphia made it to the playoffs last season and in a weak NFC the Eagles can do it again. Hurts can check that box too.

You can tell yourself a story that Hurts can be in the MVP race. With a 40-to-1 shot, that's all you can ask.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a recent favorite of MVP bettors (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a recent favorite of MVP bettors (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Russell Wilson leads MVP bets

Hurts has a ways to go to catch the most popular bet for NFL MVP, which is new Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson.

Wilson has 19 percent of the bets since the odds opened. That's far ahead of Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, who is in second place with 12 percent of the bets. Tom Brady is in third place at 10 percent. Hurts has the eighth-most bets since odds opened after the Super Bowl, but he's gaining.

Since the draft, Wilson and Allen have both gotten 15 percent of the bets, just behind Hurts.

All we know now is that MVP is likely going to a quarterback. Bettors are hoping that their long shot bet on Hurts is the right play.