NFL betting: Odds keep moving on Josh Allen for MVP, they're still not short enough

·4 min read

Josh Allen is +300 to win NFL MVP.

Perhaps you didn't believe in Allen before the season, or didn't want to lay the +700 odds at BetMGM. Maybe you took a longer shot instead of Allen. You might not have any Allen-for-MVP tickets and worry that you missed the train. You haven't.

It's not easy to take a +300 favorite to win an award after two games. This might be an exception.

Don't keep waiting to bet Allen to win MVP if you missed before. You might look up soon and see minus-odds next to his name very soon.

Josh Allen is the MVP favorite

Allen for MVP seemed a bit ordained before the season even started. Not that others didn't have a chance. But if the Buffalo Bills had the kind of season they were capable of, and Allen delivered the type of stats that made him the first quarterback drafted in just about every fantasy football draft before the season, it was going to be very hard to beat him. He had the preseason buzz, he hasn't won the award yet, he's the new fresh face of the league, and the Bills are a great story. The season didn't start with a truly clean slate. Allen had a head start on the race.

Through two games, the Bills and Allen have been even better than advertised. The Bills are an impressive 2-0. Allen has 614 yards, seven touchdowns and a 123.7 passer rating. He has been dominant. His MVP odds went from +700 before the season to +450 last week and now they're +300.

Jalen Hurts has been very good. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a monster game. Lamar Jackson's numbers are better than you probably realize. But Allen looks like an MVP. He's not a lock, because there is no such thing, but getting him at 3-to-1 odds isn't the worst thing. If he keeps up anything near this pace, he's likely to win the award and you'll cash that ticket.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is the early NFL MVP favorite. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is the early NFL MVP favorite. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Patrick Mahomes among contenders

The one player near Allen in the odds, and rightfully so, is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is +450. Nobody else is shorter than +1000.

Mahomes would be a fine pick. He's already one of the greatest to ever play the position, and he just turned 27 years old. Allen is still the more likely MVP. First, Mahomes has already won an MVP award. Usually, voters across sports like spreading the award around to new winners if it's close. Also, Allen seems like he has a higher statistical ceiling than Mahomes. Mahomes has been good but he's getting very little out of his receivers. He doesn't have a Stefon Diggs out wide. It will be hard for Mahomes to match Allen on the stat sheet over the course of the season, unless JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling become more productive. And while we don't know where their respective teams' seasons are going, it's much easier to envision the Bills getting the conference's No. 1 seed playing in the AFC East, which is much easier than the AFC West. If the Bills finish above the Chiefs, that's another positive mark for Allen.

There is risk in betting a big favorite for MVP. Allen could get hurt, especially with his sometimes-reckless running style. Maybe the Miami Dolphins will be really good and they shock the Bills to win the AFC East. Someone like Justin Herbert or any other quarterback could go nuclear over the rest of the season and snatch the award. Mahomes is still a factor and will be all season.

Allen doesn't have the award locked up. But he's clearly the favorite and will be until there's a good reason to remove him from that spot. It's not easy to bet him at +300, until you realize that the odds could look a lot lower in another week or two.