NFL betting, odds: The time to act is now in the Super Bowl MVP market
We are only 17 days away from Super Bowl LVII. As the excitement builds and the field narrows, the realization that we are rapidly heading toward the season's conclusion sets in. Most futures positions have been decided, unless you are fortunate enough to have a ticket on one of the remaining four teams. Also, the plethora of futures markets we have fired into during the season has dwindled to a few. However, one of the most interesting ones left is still sitting in front of us: Super Bowl MVP. It's also one that we should be looking at now, rather than waiting until half the board gets eliminated on Sunday.
When we hear "Super Bowl MVP," we immediately think of the winning team's quarterback. It's exactly why the top four players on the odds board are Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy. However, focusing on those four players doesn't make sense if you want value. Over the last decade, there's been a 60/40 split between quarterbacks and non-quarterbacks winning the honor. So if you view it through the lens of quarterbacks being a -150 favorite (60% implied probability), you certainly wouldn't dismiss the underdog. Let's take a look at the top options, outside of the quarterbacks, for each remaining team to see if we can find enough value to take one last swing at the futures market.
Christian McCaffrey, +1400
McCaffrey holds the shortest odds of the group, despite the 49ers having the longest odds of the remaining field at +350. It's hard to back him at this price because he doesn't have a shot unless the least probable team wins the Super Bowl. McCaffrey has made all the difference in the 49ers' offense, but it's also a big question mark whether it would show up on the stat sheet. Elijah Mitchell led the team in carries against Dallas, while McCaffrey was only used on 10 of 32 rushing attempts. There are too many mouths to feed in the 49ers' backfield for me to bet on McCaffrey at this price.
Travis Kelce, +2500
If you believe Patrick Mahomes will be effective enough to get to the Super Bowl, you may want to look at Kelce at this price. This isn't a Chiefs team of the past, where the offense was littered with explosive playmakers. It's a two-man game between Mahomes and Kelce. That means if Mahomes goes off on Super Bowl Sunday, Kelce will have the production and the charisma to overshadow his quarterback, who already has a Super Bowl MVP under his belt. Kelce's 12 receiving touchdowns in the regular season were second to only Davante Adams, and the Chiefs tight end added two more against Jacksonville. Kelce's worth a bet at this price.
Ja'Marr Chase, +2500
Chase has had four games with over 100 receiving yards and has the talent to put up a stat line that jumps off the page. His odds become much more appealing if San Francisco beats Philadelphia, and he faces a secondary that Davante Adams cooked for 153 yards and 2 TDs. Those numbers would be hard to deny if Chase duplicates them, but I can't imagine a world where Cincinnati wins the Super Bowl without Joe Burrow being named MVP. At 25 to 1, Kelce's chances are much better.
A.J. Brown, +3500
Do you want single-game performances that can swing voters? A.J. Brown is your guy. He has three games over 150 yards, including a 181-yard day against the Bears, when he averaged over 20 yards per catch. Philadelphia's dynamic wideout could be a real threat to take home the award if the Eagles win the Super Bowl. Brown would benefit more from facing the Chiefs, who were miserable at defending the opponent's top wideout. Kansas City ranks 31st, ahead of only the Bears, in Football Outsider's DVOA metric against No.1 WRs.
Who's the best value?
Is A.J. Brown at +3500 better value than Travis Kelce at +2500? It depends on which team you feel confident will win the Super Bowl. You are only gaining 1.07% of implied probability from Brown's to Kelce's odds (3.85% to 2.78%), so your opinion on the team's chances holds more weight. I am much more confident in Philadelphia advancing than Kansas City, which helps shape my decision. You might not feel the same way or prefer not to have additional exposure to a certain team. Either way, there are different ways to approach our final swing at the futures market. One thing is for sure, the odds won't look the same on Monday.
