NFL betting: Playing the waiting game for a Week 3 NFL teaser

NFL teasers moved to 1-1 on the season after last week’s missed. The Commanders +8.5 missed by the hook to the Lions after a missed extra point from Washington kicker Joey Slye just before the two-minute warning to close the game. Kickers, man. That’s football. We move on to Week 3.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.

  • Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).

  • Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).

  • Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).

Current Week 3 teaser-leg options

Titans +8.5 vs. Raiders, 45.5

Texans +8.5 at Bears, 40

Broncos +7.5 vs. 49ers, 44.5

Teaser-leg options that could become available by kickoff

Patriots +8.5 vs. Ravens (current line +3), 43.5

Panthers +8.5 vs. Saints (current line +3), 41

Packers +7.5 at Buccaneers (current line +1), 42

Falcons +7.5 at Seahawks (current line +1), 42

Cowboys +7.5 at Giants (current line +1), 39

Teammates rush kicker Brett Maher after he kicked a field goal in the fourth quarter to win the game for the Dallas Cowboys over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Amanda McCoy/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
The Dallas Cowboys could be a good NFL teaser leg this week. (Amanda McCoy/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) (Fort Worth Star-Telegram via Getty Images)

Avoiding the current teaser options

Do any of the current Week 3 options look enticing? The Titans replaced QB Ryan Tannehill with Malik Willis down 34-7 to the Bills last week. Tannehill has gone nine straight games throwing for less than 300 passing yards. I know Derek Carr has spent as much time on his back as he has attempting to throw, but that late-game quarterback switch can’t be a good thing for Tannehill’s psyche.

The Texans are intriguing as one of eight teams that is 2-0 ATS, but if I’m looking to put dollars toward a team, I need to have a good understanding of why. I am an analyst and I can’t give you a reason to back the Texans. The team stats aren’t anything to rave about, ranking 29th in total offense and 31st in total defense, but Houston is making it work.

The Broncos are a complete fade for me until Nathaniel “Can’t” Hackett can show me that he has at least some inkling of what he’s doing. Sure, he’s a first-year head coach, but his decision-making is beyond questionable. Last thing you want is to wager on something you don’t feel good about.

(Potential) Week 3 teaser: Falcons +7.5 and Cowboys +7.5

There are two options for Week 3. One, you can pass. A no bet is just as good as a win. Two, you can wait from now until Sunday kickoff to see if any of the lines shift in favor of creating a two-team teaser. Why not tease a 3- or 1-point spreads? Those are numbers that provide more value as individual wagers rather than paying the extra juice for a teaser.

The teaser I’d be looking to make if it becomes available is Falcons +7.5 and Cowboys +7.5.

The Falcons may be 0-2 SU, but they have been competitive in back-to-back losses with Marcus Mariota behind center. First was a one-point loss to the Saints followed by a four-point loss to the Rams. You know what you’re going to get from Mariota, a mobile quarterback who doesn’t quite make as many boneheaded decisions as others. This could be a big game for RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who had 120 rushing yards against the Saints in Week 1 and now faces a Seattle defense ranked 25th against the run and has yet to force a three-and-out drive.

Offensively, the Seahawks are one of three teams to not score an offensive touchdown in the second half. The seven second-half points against the 49ers came from a touchdown off a blocked field goal attempt.

The Giants’ pass protection is still a weakness, ranking 30th in sack percentage allowed. That’s the matchup I’m interested in seeing: how Daniel Jones and the offensive line will manage the Cowboys’ pass rush. LB Micah Parsons is tied for the league lead in sacks (four) with Khalil Mack through two games. The disparity between quarterback protection and Dallas’ pass rush is enough for me to make the Cowboys a teaser leg.