NFL betting preview: Mahomes, Herbert and the rest of our favorite passing props

·2 min read

Quarterbacks get most of the attention in the NFL. That's why they always win the MVP awards.

There are passing props on just about every starting NFL quarterback at BetMGM. Our Yahoo Sportsbook team takes a look at our favorite overs and unders for passing yardage and touchdowns:

MARK DRUMHELLER: Unders on QB props (passing yards and TD’s) hit at a 74% clip last season per Betspert’s Connor Allen. There isn’t a QB in the league in a worse position than Justin Fields. Chicago has the worst OL in the NFL and the second-worst set of receivers. Fields under 3,299.5 yards are as good as gold.

NICK BROMBERG: Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 4,700 in each of the three full seasons he’s played the NFL. His only season as a starter with fewer than 4,700 yards came when he missed time because of a knee injury in 2019. That’s why I really like Mahomes to throw for over 4,649.5 yards this year.

Patrick Mahomes is looking for another big season with the Kansas City Chiefs. (AP Foto/David Banks)
Patrick Mahomes is looking for another big season with the Kansas City Chiefs. (AP Foto/David Banks)

PETER TRUSZKOWSKI: Justin Herbert to go over 4,699.5 passing yards. He eclipsed 5,000 last season and I expect him to be near the top of the league again. The Chargers will need to throw the ball to keep up in games against their loaded division. My only concern would be injury, but that’s a concern with anyone.

GREG BRAINOS: Kirk Cousins over 31.5 passing touchdowns. He’s cleared this in each of his seasons with Justin Jefferson, and that was in Mike Zimmer’s vanilla offense. I see Cousins tossing 40+ scores under Kevin O’Connell this season, which is why I’m also putting a taste on him to lead the league in passing touchdowns at 18-to-1.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Baker Mayfield cruises over 3,600 yards (-115) if he simply stays healthy. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore can drag him there. And don’t be spooked by 2021 Mayfield; he wasn’t healthy for most of the year and the Browns set him up to fail. All is forgiven.

FRANK SCHWAB: I’d rather bet unders than overs, because more can go wrong in an NFL season than can go right. There’s a trio I like: Jameis Winston under 3,749.5 (he wasn’t a high-volume passer last season and is an injury risk now), Mac Jones under 3,949.5 (another low-volume passing offense) and Matt Ryan under 3,899.5 as my best bet. The Colts threw for 3,588 yards last season, not that much has changed around the quarterback position and I expect them to be good and protecting a lot of leads. Ryan will be efficient but not a 3,900-yard passer.