Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he's putting his jelly beans for Week 17. All lines courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.
The Steelers cashed for us last week, the lone bright spot from an ugly card. There will be weeks like that. We keep the head down, we keep grinding. The seasonal record is now 47-29-4 ATS.
Panthers +3.5 at Buccaneers
The Carolina running game is capable of taking over, and let’s not overlook how well Sam Darnold is playing. He’s yet to throw a pick, he’s getting a juicy 8.6 YPA and the Panthers have won three of his four starts. Carolina also has a win over Tampa Bay in its back pocket, a 21-3 victory back in October. I was leaning Panthers to begin with, but getting the hook makes the pick automatic.
Steelers +2.5 at Ravens
Any points are welcome in this notorious rock fight, where 13-17 points could easily be enough to win the game. The Ravens have cornered the market on winning ugly — in their last five victories, they have 319, 308, 285, 309 and 299 yards. That won’t be enough to get the money here. Pittsburgh certainly hasn’t quit on Mike Tomlin.
Bengals +1 vs. Bills
Maybe Buffalo has the better team but it’s only by an eyelash. And let’s give it up for the Bengals, who have been a bettor’s dream — they’ve cashed 20 times ATS in their last 23 starts, including last year’s playoffs. The Cincinnati offense isn’t as explosive as last year, but Joe Burrow has done a much better job avoiding negative plays; his sack and interception rates are notably improved.
Browns +2 at Commanders
I think Washington is making a mistake going back to Carson Wentz, and there could be a post-San Francisco hangover — every team that’s faced the 49ers this year has lost the following week. The Cleveland offense is not suitable for television, but perhaps the Browns will let their running game control things for three hours.
Bottom line, I knew I’d be on Cleveland once the Wentz news came down.
Jaguars -4 at Texans
The Houston defense has quietly been solid, checking in as ninth in DVOA over the last two months. But Jacksonville has the No. 6 offense and the No. 2 passing game over that span, and offense generally controls outcomes. The Jaguars obviously want next week’s de-facto AFC South Championship Game, but there’s still a window where Jacksonville could get a playoff spot even if it loses to Tennessee next week. I don’t expect Doug Pederson to ease off the gas pedal.
Last Week: 1-4
Pianow's historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) and 2022 weekly results are listed here.