NFL betting Week 2: Roll with ‘Baby Aaron’ on a teaser

·Betting analyst
·3 min read

Week 1 of the NFL was in every way as exciting as I hoped it would be. The ending in the Monday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders was electric. Mac Jones displayed some Offensive Rookie of the Year skills. More importantly, the week 1 teaser was an easy hit. On to Week 2.

There is basic teaser strategy. Here is the simplified version. If you want a bit more of an explanation, refer back to the Week 1 teaser article

  • Play 6-point teasers in games with a total of 49 points or less.

  • Tease home favorites of 7.5, 8, 8.5, or 9 points down.

  • Tease home underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 points up.

  • Tease road underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, or 2.5 points up.

Week 2 NFL six-point teaser betting options

Using the points above, unfortunately, leaves just one option that fits this mold exactly.

  • Bengals +8.5 at Bears

Now what? You can wait until Sunday morning to see how the odds have shifted or consider a logical risk. Here’s what I mean.

There are multiple games with a 3.5-point spread. Using current lines, those games are

Giants +3.5 at Washington

Bills at Dolphins +3.5

49ers at Eagles +3.5

Saints at Panthers +3.5

Chiefs at Ravens +9.5

Here’s the thing. Teasing from 3.5 to 9.5 is not +EV (positive expected value) unless you have other factors that give it some upside.

Based on these options, the Giants, Dolphins, and Panthers make the ‘logical’ sense to back in a teaser because these are divisional matchups in a potential low-scoring affair (game totals of 49 or less).

A final option, Vikings +10.5 at Cardinals. I would consider teasing +4.5 to +10.5 only if in a low-totaled game. This matchup is not one of those games, with a line set at 51. In the future, however, in a lower totaled game, you could consider teasing +4.5 as it crosses the 7 and the 10 (3.5 to 9.5 just crosses the 7) and 8/9 are pretty dead numbers.

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after a game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 12, 2021. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (9) runs off the field after a game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 12, 2021. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Six-point teaser: Cincinnati +8.5 and Giants +9.5

This Bengals team comes alive with Joe Burrow on the field. The offensive line will always be a concern. However, the Chicago Bears were 18th in quarterback pressure last year and produced just one sack on nine touches last week against the Rams. Da Bears won’t scare me or Baby Aaron from putting up points.

The Giants at Washington game has the lowest total of the week at 40.5, down from the opening 42.5. Having ​​a much lower total, facing a backup quarterback, in a divisional game, makes this option justifiable. Additionally, with money coming in on the Giants at +3.5, this line may shift down to 3.

Betting tip: Don't ever use favorites of 5.5, 6, and 6.5 down to near pick-em because "all they have to do is win the game." Favorites in this price range are much more vulnerable than people realize. Upsets occur enough to spike too many teasers. Take Buffalo last week, losing at home as 6.5-point favorites to the Steelers.

The Chiefs were vulnerable most of the way as 6-point home favorites, but dodged the upset.

Avoid being a square in this instance as the price range is a Bermuda's triangle all too often.

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