NFL draft betting: If Mac Jones doesn't go No. 3, how far could he fall?

Frank Schwab
·3 min read

The debate for weeks has been whether the San Francisco 49ers will draft Alabama quarterback Mac Jones at No. 3. Long story short: Most 49ers fans really dislike the idea. 

What hasn't been talked about as much is what happens to Jones if the 49ers take Trey Lance or Justin Fields instead. 

Most of the reason 49ers fans dislike the idea of the team trading up to take Jones is most mock drafts didn't have Jones anywhere near No. 3. There hasn't been a ton of buzz that the 49ers jumped ahead of multiple teams that secretly also had Jones that high on their draft boards. 

It seems plausible that if Jones doesn't go No. 3, it could be a bit of a wait until he's off the board. 

Mac Jones still favored to go No. 3

To reset the BetMGM odds, Jones is still the heavy favorite to go with the third pick. He's -250 to be selected third, and Lance is behind him at +225. 

One of the more interesting props offered by BetMGM is Lance and Jones to go ahead of Fields, at +135 odds. It would be surprising at this point if the Jones part of that is what bettors are sweating, but it's possible. 

Constructing a non-49ers landing spot for Jones based on BetMGM's odds is a bit difficult. 

Only three teams outside of the first three picks are favored to take a quarterback with their first pick: the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. There has been no buzz about the Falcons hoping Jones falls to No. 4, though teams don't often announce their draft plans ahead of time. The Broncos could consider Jones at No. 9, but the trade Wednesday for Teddy Bridgewater makes it hard to figure out what they want to do at quarterback in the draft. 

The Patriots at No. 15? Well, that is interesting. 

If Mac Jones doesn't go third to the 49ers, where will he land? (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)
If Mac Jones doesn't go third to the 49ers, where will he land? (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Could New England land Jones? 

New England is bringing back Cam Newton but based on his struggles last season, it seems unlikely he's the team's answer for the future at quarterback. Jones seems to be a reasonable fit. The relationship between Alabama coach Nick Saban and Bill Belichick is well documented. 

Then again, what happens if Fields and Jones fall that far? It doesn't seem likely, but it also seems like nothing can be ruled out after No. 2. 

We have been asking Yahoo Sports NFL draft expert Eric Edholm for his takes on some of the NFL draft props offered by BetMGM

Edholm: "Mac Jones falling would be a really fascinating curveball, although teams have told me they're preparing scenarios with Jones at 3 and not at 3. My guess is that he'd end up going roughly where QBs 4 and 5 — presumably Fields and Lance — are figuring to go. Most likely you could see the first one go off the board at Detroit or Carolina, Nos. 7 or 8, via a trade-up. But who is coming up? Is New England more likely to pursue Jones or less? How far can the Bears move and does this change their plan of attack? This draft is pretty darned fascinating up top."

The volatility of this draft is fascinating. It's summed up by the fact that Jones is the favorite to go No. 3, but if the 49ers go in a different direction, Jones could conceivably go 12 or more spots later. 

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