NFL draft betting props: Bad tight end class summed up by odds of one going in first round
The two best tight ends in football are George Kittle and Travis Kelce. It’s no coincidence they met in Super Bowl LIV.
And how’s this for irony: After seeing how important an elite tight end can be for a team, there is nothing resembling an elite tight end in this year’s NFL draft.
Between Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant and others, there have been some good first-round tight ends over the past few years. Don’t expect that this year.
And if you’re willing to lay a huge price at BetMGM in New Jersey, you can probably cash an easy ticket after the first round of the NFL draft. Just not for much of a return.
Odds say no tight end will go in the first round
If you need a snapshot of how thin this year’s tight-end class is, here’s a prop bet from BetMGM:
Total tight ends drafted in the first round
Under 0.5 -2000; over 0.5 +900
That’s right, if you laid $200 on the under, you’d win a mighty $10. And yet, taking the over seems like a waste.
Some years are better than others at certain positions. Some years multiple quarterbacks are deserving of a top-five pick, other years EJ Manuel is the first quarterback off the board. This year it’s a rough year at tight end.
If there is a star in the group it’s likely coming after the first round, like Kelce and Kittle did.
Which tight end will be first one picked?
Even in a thin class there has to be someone picked first among tight ends, and there is a BetMGM prop for that too. But first, Yahoo Sports NFL draft expert Eric Edholm weighs in on the tight ends:
Edholm: “Sorry, but it's a tough year to want or need a tight end in the draft. Some of these prospects will turn into decent players, but it's just not a group to get excited about. Every prospect at the position has at least one major concern holding him back. (But the 2021 class could be terrific for you draft completists out there!)
“So to me, the chances of one landing in Round 1 are twofold: slim and none. I'd guess one, maybe two, could crack the top 50 or 60 picks. The two most likely candidates, from my view, to be TE1 are Notre Dame's Cole Kmet and Dayton's Adam Trautman. Although Trautman fascinates people, the idea of taking a DIII tight end still freaks others out. That's why Kmet is more likely to be called first.”
Only three tight ends are getting less than 10-to-1 odds to be first selected at Bet MGM. Kmet is -182, Trautman is +600 and Purdue’s Brycen Hopkins is +800. Given that Kmet is such a big favorite, it might be worth it to take Trautman and hope one team falls in love with his skill set. The risk in taking a small-school player lessens after the first round.
Either way, you probably won’t find out the result of that wager until Day 2 of the draft.
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