NFL MVP odds: Russell Wilson's MVP odds have moved so much, he's favored over the field

Frank Schwab
·3 min read

Who would you take to win NFL MVP, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson or any other player in the league?

If you want Wilson vs. any of the roughly 1,700 other players in the league, the odds are still against you.

With Wilson going out to a huge lead in the MVP race, his odds have moved into minus territory. He is -130 to win MVP at BetMGM. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the second-best odds at a distant +550.

Wilson has become such an overwhelming favorite, BetMGM offered a new MVP bet: Russell Wilson or the field. The field is the underdog.

Russell Wilson the overwhelming MVP favorite

It’s rare to see an MVP race look like a runaway a little more than one-third of the way into a season.

Wilson has not only been fantastic, he’s getting the hype to go along with it. That helps. It’s hard to imagine anyone else even getting an MVP vote at this point, and oddsmakers agree.

Wilson, who started the season with +600 odds to win MVP, is -130 against the field. The field, which is any NFL player other than Wilson, is -106.

Wilson has earned that kind of respect. He has 1,285 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. He just led a last-minute win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks are 5-0, one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. Wilson has played nearly perfect football this season.

When you bet on something like individual awards, you also have to handicap the voters. Voters love quarterbacks. They also love a good story and new blood, and Wilson has been a deserving star for years without ever getting one MVP vote. That part aligns for Wilson, too.

It’s not even a matter of making an argument for Wilson. It’s trying to figure out an argument for anyone else.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is the runaway favorite to win NFL MVP. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is the runaway favorite to win NFL MVP. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Who could beat out Wilson in MVP race?

There are some unlikely factors that Wilson backers will have to worry about, like an injury or a long Seahawks losing streak. It’s harder to envision Wilson himself falling into a personal slump. Someone would have to catch him.

It would be an obvious upset if Wilson doesn’t win, though there are 11 weeks left in the season. Here are all the players at 25-to-1 or lower, aside from Wilson:

Patrick Mahomes +550
Aaron Rodgers +600
Lamar Jackson +1800
Tom Brady +2000
Derrick Henry +2000
Ben Roethlisberger +2000
Kyler Murray +2200
Josh Allen +2500

You can see why Wilson vs. the field has the odds it does. It’s hard to make a fair argument outside of Wilson, Mahomes or Rodgers. But, there is a long way to go.

It’s rare to see one player distance himself in the MVP race this early in a season. But Wilson might be in the middle of a rare season.

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