In a stroke of either genius or coincidence, the NFL is giving us 13 games on Halloween. Can the Jets' skeleton crew shock the Bengals? Will Sam Darnold defeat his ghosts? How many "Thriller" dance celebrations will we see? Here are the four player props I'll be playing on BetMGM tomorrow:
Tyler Johnson over 25.5 receiving yards
Antonio Brown's ankle injury has opened up the door for Johnson. The second-year receiver ran a route on 69.4% of the Bucs' dropbacks last week versus the Bears. Brown will be out again this week for their matchup with New Orleans. Tom Brady and the Bucs are passing on nearly 66% of plays — a number which might tick up even more against the Saints, who have the best rushing defense in the league. Johnson is averaging 14 yards per reception and will be the beneficiary of focused coverage on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Damien Harris over 71.5 rushing yards
The Chargers are getting gashed for a league-high 162.5 rushing yards per game. They've also surrendered the most 20-plus yard runs (8). Harris is tied with Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb for the most 20-plus yard runs by a running back this season with five long scampers. He's cleared 100 yards rushing in each of his last two games following the return of several key starters on New England's offensive line. If Chargers coach Brandon Staley continues playing with light six-man boxes on defense, Harris is going to eat like a trick-or-treater in Willy Wonka's neighborhood.
DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions
The rookie is already one of the best technical route-runners in the NFL and the Lions are one of the most technically-deficient secondaries. Detroit ranks 24th in completion percentage allowed. Alpha receivers have been shredding the Lions this year with Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp all posting seven or more receptions. Smith has hit this prop in three of his last four games.
Tyler Higbee to score and Rams to win (+220)
The Texans have given up touchdowns to tight ends in each of their last four games and in five of their last seven. Higbee's 26.7% red zone target share coupled with the Rams' implied total of 31 makes this an attractive proposition at +220.
Stats provided by PFF, Pro Football Reference, and nfl.com.