NHL draft lottery: What's at stake for Montreal Canadiens
The NHL playoffs might not be "must see TV" for Montreal Canadiens' fans this year, but Saturday's draft lottery could provide at least one chance to cheer.
The ping pong balls will rattle, and if Montreal's number comes up, the bleu-blanc-et-rouge will win one of the top three picks in the upcoming NHL entry draft.
How it works
All the teams that didn't qualify for the NHL playoffs have a chance to win one of the top three picks, but not everyone has an equal shot.
The chance of winning the pick corresponds to where the team finished in the regular season standings.
The worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, have the best odds of winning, at 20 per cent, while at the other end, the Boston Bruins only have a one per cent chance, because they were the best team not to make the playoffs.
The Montreal Canadiens were the ninth-worst team in the NHL, so their chances sit at five per cent.
This year's lottery promises to be the most dynamic yet, because for the first time the top three picks will be decided by the lottery. There will be three draws and three winners. After each round, the remaining teams that didn't already win will have their odds recalculated, and there will be another draw.
Draft odds:
- Toronto 20 %
- Edmonton 13.5 %
- Vancouver 11.5 %
- Columbus 9.5%
- Calgary 8.5%
- Winnipeg 7.5%
- Arizona 6.5%
- Buffalo 6 %
- Montreal 5%
- Colorado 3.5%
- New Jersey 3%
- Ottawa 2.5%
- Carolina 2%
- Boston 1%
Best case scenario
Picking in the top three this year is what every team wants.
The general consensus among NHL scouts is that there are three players in the draft who are heads-and-shoulders above the rest: American Auston Matthews is expected to go first overall, followed by Patrick Laine and Finland's Jesse Puljujarvi.
From a Habs' perspective, any of these players would be a welcome addition to the team. All three are forwards, and all three could turn out to be top-six in quality.
This is important because general manager Marc Bergevin has made it clear he's looking for a top quality player, and he doesn't think he can get one via trade or free agency.
For Bergevin, the draft is the only real way to build a winning team. If Montreal is to land one of the top three picks, it will take a lot of guesswork out of deciding who to take.
After Matthews, Laine and Puljujariv, opinion is divided on whether there is another guy out there who can contribute at the NHL level right away. The player Montreal takes may turn out to be a good pick in the longer term, but developing him could take a few years.
Worst case scenario
If the Habs don't win a top three pick, they will pick, at best, ninth overall and, at worst, 12th overall.
But 12th will only happen if three teams with lower odds of winning have their numbers called, and they leapfrog over the Habs. Most likely it will fall somewhere in the middle.
If the Canadiens don't win, head scout Trevor Timmins will once again be called on to find the best player he can. Timmins has been with the Habs for 14 season now, and here's a look at his history of first-round picks:
Want to try?
There is a nifty way for fans to test out the lottery on their own at nhllotterysimulator.com.
It's a lot of fun. Give it a try and see possible outcomes for Saturday's lottery.
