November hurricane forecast says more storms could be brewing after Rafael
With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season in its final month, could Hurricane Rafael be the swan song of the season, or are there more storms to come? And, overall, what does the rest of hurricane season look like?
While it is getting late in the season, things look "conducive for another storm or two," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY. "In addition to the area that the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring that could form north of the Leeward Islands, there could be additional potential in the Caribbean."
It's already been an unusually active season, with 17 named storms forming, which is above the average of 14. Of those 17 storms, 11 were hurricanes, including the catastrophic Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30, though storms occasionally form in December.
Global climate patterns could help storms form
"There aren't any 'smoking gun' signals at this point, but the large-scale looks fairly conducive" for more tropical cyclone activity past Rafael, Klotzbach said.
He said global climate patterns such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favor storm formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It influences weather, including hurricane formation, around the globe.
In addition, hurricane-shredding wind shear is forecast to be well below normal by mid-to-late month. "The shear in most of the western Caribbean is forecast to be between 10-20 knots, which could certainly support another storm," Klotzbach said.
'Something could spin up next week'
Another expert, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok, told USA TODAY Tuesday that "it still looks active in the Caribbean" over the next week or so, due primarily to the lack of wind shear. "Something could spin up there next week," he said, adding that whatever forms could take a similar path to Rafael.
Federal scientists at the Climate Prediction Center agreed, noting that the Caribbean next week "will provide a favorable environment for late-season tropical cyclone development." Forecasts show potential storms forming over the western or central Caribbean as well as the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos islands.
November storms rare but not unheard of
"Of the more than 1,700 tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic Basin since 1842, 125 have occurred in November," said WNCN-TV meteorologist Rachel Duensing. "One hundred and twenty-five storms is still a lot, but in the overall scheme of hurricane season, that only accounts for 7% of all named storms."
As far as storms that hit the U.S., only four hurricanes on record have made landfall in the U.S. mainland on the penultimate month of the calendar, but the most recent one – Nicole – hit Florida a mere two years ago.
Here are the four hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. in November, according to Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:
◾ Nicole in Florida (Cat. 1) on Nov. 10, 2022.
◾ Kate in the Florida Panhandle (Cat. 2) on Nov. 21, 1985 (record latest in season U.S. hurricane landfall).
◾ A South Florida Cat. 2 on Nov. 4, 1935.
◾ The "Expedition Hurricane" in eastern North Carolina (Cat. 1) on Nov. 2, 1861.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecast says more storms could be brewing after Rafael
