The current dry and above seasonal pattern is set to continue across the Maritimes, and spoiler alert: conditions will get even better as we kick off October this weekend.
A persistent high-pressure ridge has enveloped the Maritimes for the past week, with the hottest stretch of weather flaring up as soon as we flip the calendar into October. Some record-setting temperatures are on the line.
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A record setting start to October on the line
We can look at the average maximum temperature for the first seven days of October for some locations across the Maritimes to see what the warmest years were in the past. The records hover in the high teens to the low 20s. This doesn't mean there haven't been warmer daily temperatures, but this is a look at the average of the first seven days.
There have definitely been some notable stretches of warm temperatures in the late 1800s, as well as in 2005 and 2012. Reaching these records is not a home run, but models are indicating that it is possible for some areas to have their warmest start to October, with some other areas falling just shy of it. Regardless, it will certainly feel like a great start to the month.
This warm stretch doesn't necessarily mean we'll see extreme temperatures, but instead, a good warm average. It's not likely we'll beat any record highs for the month of October, as they sit in the high 20s, and even at 31.1°C for Halifax from 1930.
There are a couple of factors driving the warmth we're experiencing, including a stubborn, high-pressure system across the U.S. that's sandwiched between two cut-off upper lows. This pattern is called an "omega block," which causes a blockage in the atmosphere. Essentially, what we're seeing is what we're getting.
We have high confidence that the next seven days will remain dry across the Maritimes, extending the days without rainfall to more than 15.
The summer was exceedingly wet across the Maritimes and consequently, that’s provided a buffer from spiraling right into any drought conditions.
With the potential for the warmest start to October on record, it fits into the global climate context. August was the warmest on record across North America, including the Arctic. Current wildfires burning across the country are a testament to this, as smoke swirls around the globe.
As the Maritimes looks to endure one of the warmest starts to October on record, be on the lookout for our monthly outlook this Sunday, October 1 highlighting when we will expect the next pattern change to develop.
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With files from Tyler Hamilton and Matt Grinter, meteorologists at The Weather Network.
Thumbnail image courtesy: Getty Images.