What are the odds an Atlantic disturbance grows into a depression? A change in forecast

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have lowered the development chances on the disturbance they have been monitoring the last few days in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.

The disturbance, which is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, now has a 20% chance of development over the next two days and 30% in five days, according to the NHC’s 8 p.m. Tuesday report.

The 48-hour outlook hasn’t changed from Monday’s forecast, but the longer range growth dropped from 40% to 30% for a couple of reasons.

The system’s shower and thunderstorm activity has tapered off a bit and the environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

“Despite a favorable positioning within a broader region of background spin and rich tropical moisture known as the monsoon trough, the system is struggling to organize,” added WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry’s Tuesday morning post on Eye on the Tropics.

“The big story across the eastern tropical Atlantic so far this season has been the very stable atmosphere, keeping a lid on storminess that tries to bubble up and organize,” Lowry noted.

If the system, now dubbed Invest 97L, does grow into a named storm, it would be Danielle. The disturbance is the first forecasters at the hurricane center have had to monitor since July 13.

What about Howard in the Pacific?

Meantime, Hurricane Howard in the Pacific is now about 500 miles west of the southern tip of Baja, California, according to the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. Tuesday report.

Howard’s winds are at 75 mph with higher gusts, and is moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

But Howard is weakening and will continue to do so over the next two days as it loses its hurricane status Tuesday night. If so, as a tropical storm, Howard is expected to become a remnant Thursday, according to hurricane center forecasters.

Howard is the seventh named storm of the 2022 eastern North Pacific hurricane season, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

Three other years on record have had seven eastern North Pacific hurricanes by Aug. 8 in 1971, 1984 and 1990. “No year on record has had more than seven hurricanes by this date in the eastern North Pacific,” Klotzbach noted on Twitter on Monday.