I skipped out on full tournament PGA matchups last week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic because there were simply no lines I deemed worthy. Sometimes, that’s how it goes. There are so many options daily and weekly that you don’t need to force the action. Ultimately, my strategy to back off was the right call because the two options I had in mind didn't work out. Even if they had, there’s no need to be results-oriented. There will be wagering options each day, and tomorrow is a new day.
This week for the Wyndham Championship, there are two matchups that caught my attention. Here’s what I’ve got.
Si Woo Kim (+115) vs. Corey Conners
Is Conners the better ball-striker? Yes. However, I’m weighing course history a bit on the heavy side in this matchup. The Canadian last played at Sedgefield Country Club in 2020 for his third appearance, and his best finish is T22 in 2019. He’s a much-improved player, but that ball-striking he is known for hasn’t been there in back-to-back events. Since finishing solo sixth in the RBC Canadian Open, Conners has a missed cut, a T61, and a T28, last playing in the Open Championship. In those events, he either lost strokes off the tee, on approach, or putting, while still being a negative player around the green. Now, he’s definitely capable of bouncing back after a couple of weeks off, but I like the upside Kim has to offer.
The South Korean has a good course history with six appearances, four resulting in top-five finishes, including a win in 2016 and a T2 last year. While Conners has been on a bit of decline, Kim has been on a bit of an upward trend with back-to-back top-15 finishes after missing the cut in three straight events. He may not have the distance, but Kim is top 10 in driving accuracy over the last 20 rounds. Compared to Conners, Kim has the edge in both Par 3 scoring (there’s four at Sedgefield) and Par 5 scoring (two). That’s where the chances will come.
Russell Henley (-110) vs. Webb Simpson
Has anyone checked in on Simpson? Is he OK? I mentioned using course history as a factor. Sure, but you also have to balance that out with recent form and the two are telling different stories when it comes to Webb. He has the most recorded rounds (50) of anyone in the field, including a 2011 win and a five-year streak of recording a top 10. The problem is, he’s been stinking it up (yes, that is my official analysis) for some time.
This year, Simpson has played in 13 events and has just two top-20 finishes with his last being T13 in the Travelers Championship in June. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events, has lost strokes on approach in his last three and has lost strokes around the green in three of his last four tournaments. The ball-striking isn’t there, the short game isn’t there, and, really, his overall game hasn’t been there all year. Perhaps playing on a familiar course will help, but there are too many red marks to consider that likely.
Henley, on the other hand, hasn’t done much better this year and is coming into this with some momentum — a T10 in the Rocket Mortgage last week, gaining over five strokes on approach. Henley also has good course history with back-to-back top-10 finishes, including T7 last year. I’ll take the better ball-striker any day and in this matchup, and that’s by far been Henley for the greater part of the year.