President Trump's approval ratings have seemed to balance out in the past few weeks, but new insight from FiveThirtyEight reveals where the commander in chief may be losing the most ground.
While national polls are most covered, discussed and scrutinized, Gallup and SurveyMonkey both recently published state-by-state approval ratings, and statistician Nate Silver's outlet has taken the time to break down those results.
While Trump remains popular in swing states, he has seen a decline in his red state popularity. There has been a lot of talk surrounding the loyalty and tenacity of Trump's base, but this more localized data shows the president's most staunch supporters may be less intact than in 2016.
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Trump faced a wave of backlash from hardline conservatives last week when he worked with Democrats to find common ground on a legislative immigration deal that could include a pathway to amnesty for DACA recipients. While a national poll showed most approving of Trump's outreach to congressional Democrats, it enraged others -- even drove some to burn their "Make America Great Again" hats in protest.
From the 45th president's inability to move health care reform through Congress -- leaving a question mark next to his campaign promise to repeal and replace Obamacare -- to his seemingly tumultuous relationship with GOP leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, Trump has faced obstacles in recent weeks when it comes to positioning himself as the bombastic, populist man for whom many Trump voters cast their ballot.
Still, despite these numbers suggesting Trump's base may be losing support steam in Republican-dominated states, FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten describes that these findings may just be a testament to the exact reason why Trump was overlooked as a viable candidate by many throughout his campaign.
"Trump was able to win in 2016 in large part because he was able to win a decent share of the vote among people who held an unfavorable view of him," Enten writes. "So perhaps what we’re seeing isn’t a decline in Trump’s support in conservative states, but rather a reflection of its weakness from the start: Red-state voters who pulled the lever for Trump but didn’t like him, still don’t like him."
Trump's daily national approval rating as of Monday places him at 38 percent with Gallup and 44 percent with Rasmussen. While these numbers are still returning a less-than-majority approval rating for Trump, they are trending slightly up from dips to 34 percent with Gallup twice in August.
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