Popular New York Times 'Needle' may not be available Election Night amid tech guild strike
The New York Times' popular election "Needle" may not be available on Election Night, as the publication's technology guild remains on strike.
The Times' needle estimates the final outcome of an election based on partial election results − all displayed on an interactive model. As more votes are counted, the needle becomes more "confident" in the final outcome of the election.
First introduced in 2016, the Times' needle may not be available on Election Night this year because The Times Tech Guild, which represents more than 700 software engineers, designers, data analysts and product managers, has been on strike since Monday. Many of these individuals help manage the needle.
In a story published by the Times on Tuesday, the publication addressed what may occur if the strike continues through Tuesday evening.
"If we are not able to stream the Needle’s results live, our journalists plan to run its statistical model periodically, examine its output and publish updates in our live blog about what they see − giving our readers a sense of where the race actually stands over the course of the night," the team wrote.
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How does the needle work?
The needle, according to the Times, considers where votes remain to be counted in a particular race and which candidate is faring better than expected.
"As results begin coming in, the Needle compares what is being reported with pre-election expectations, county by county and precinct by precinct," the Times' Election Analysis team wrote on Tuesday. "It then estimates who will win the remaining vote based on patterns it has seen in the results so far."
Pre-election expectations are compiled from New York Times/Siena College polls, other public polls, voter registration files, the U.S. Census and past election results.
Using a statistical model, the needle adjusts its noted expectations once it begins to receive results. Precinct data helps the needle to remain the most accurate, as precincts represent the smallest geographic units.
The Times collects unofficial election results from local, state and federal agencies across the country to "feed" the needle.
Why is the Times Tech Guild striking?
In a post made on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, the Times Tech Guild shared a graphic of their own "Needle," predicting the chance of a fair contract. The graphic reads, "Strike Certain. 100% chance of work stoppage."
We are on ULP strike. We gave @nytimes management months of notice of our strike deadline, we made ourselves available around the clock, but the company has decided that our members aren’t worth enough to agree to a fair contract and stop committing unfair labor practices. pic.twitter.com/jYlANW1ruw
— New York Times Tech Guild (@NYTGuildTech) November 4, 2024
Joe Van Acker, a program manager at the Times, has been vocal about the guild's bargaining with the company through the tech guild's social media.
"Supporting the newsroom on election night was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for me, but one that I’ll gladly sacrifice along with my colleagues in pursuit of a fair contract," Acker said in a statement, shared by the guild on X.
The Times Tech Guild unionized in March 2022 and is continuing to finalize its first contract.
Negotiating since late Sunday, the guild is interested in the addition of a "just cause" provision in its contract, meaning employees could only be terminated for misconduct or another such reason. The guild is also asking for a pay increase, pay equity and return-to-office policies.
On Sunday, Times management offered workers a 2.5% annual wage increase, minimum 5% pay increase for promotions and $1,000 ratification bonus, according to the Times. The offer also maintained current in-office work requirements, which are two days a week through June, while allowing employees to work fully remote for three weeks per year.
“We are disappointed that the Tech Guild leadership is attempting to jeopardize our journalistic mission at this critical time,” Times chief growth and customer officer Hannah Yang and chief technology officer Jason Sobel said in an email to workers, published by the Times.
Greta Cross is a national trending reporter at USA TODAY. Follow her on X and Instagram @gretalcross. Story idea? Email her at gcross@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NYT election 'Needle' may not be available amid tech workers' strike
