Prop 1? Ada County races? Purple Boise district? 5 Election Day things to watch

Polls close at 8 p.m. on election night, after which Boise and Idaho voters will have a lot of news to look out for. Here are five things to watch for on election night.

Will Proposition 1 pass or be rejected?

The hotly debated ballot measure is perhaps the most consequential item on Idahoans’ ballots. If it passes, the reform would restructure how primary and general elections are conducted. It would open the closed Republican primary, replacing individual party primaries with one large primary that all voters could participate in. Voters would have their choice of candidates from any party, as well as independents.

Then in the fall, the top four candidates would advance to the general election. Once there, voters could rank the four candidates, with their second and third choices becoming important if any of their preferred picks are eliminated for insufficient votes.

Close to $1 million has been spent on ads and mailers for and against the hot-button measure. Republican Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador, an outspoken opponent of Prop 1, failed in court in his effort to keep it off the ballot, but very well could bring further legal action if voters pass it.

Who will win legislative races in Boise’s purple district?

Many of Idaho’s legislative districts are not generally competitive in the general election.

But that’s not true for District 15, in West Boise. The swing district has had tight races in recent years, which are often decided by only a few hundred votes. This year, two Democrats and one Republican are facing reelection challenges.

In the Senate, Democrat Rick Just faces a rematch against Codi Galloway, a former House member he beat in 2022 by 327 votes. The political race is the most expensive in the state.

In the House, Democrat Steve Berch, a three-time lawmaker, faces Republican challenger Annette Tipton.

Rep. Dori Healey, the Republican in office in the district, is trying to hold on to her seat in a race against political newcomer Shari Baber.

Will control of the Ada County Highway District switch?

For two years, supporters of greater spending on multimodal transportation — cyclists, pedestrians and public transit — have controlled a majority of the Boise area’s unique Ada County Highway District, which controls most of the roads in Boise, Meridian, Eagle and other Ada County cities.

Three of the five seats are up for election this year, and depending on the results, the makeup of the board and its approach to growth in Ada County could shift.

In District 2, Commission President Alexis Pickering is running against Rebecca Arnold, a former ACHD commissioner who is currently the Ada County assessor, and who lost to Pickering in a tight race four years ago.

In District 1, Commissioner Jim Hansen is leaving, with retired land use planner Patricia Nilsson running against real estate agent Antonio Bommarito.

While Pickering and Nilsson both emphasize multimodal road improvements and safety for different types of users, Arnold and Bommarito have focused their campaigns more on vehicles and traffic congestion.

In District 5, Dave McKinney is running unopposed.

Will Republicans maintain control of the Ada County Commission?

In 2018, Democrats flipped the Ada County Commission, claiming two of its three seats.

But Republicans soon flipped it back, reclaiming a majority after the 2020 election. Then in 2022, the GOP took control of all three seats.

This year, Republicans Ryan Davidson and Tom Dayley are aiming to keep full control of the commission in their races against two Democrats, Jonathan Lashley and Devin Gutierrez.

How well will Trump perform in Ada County?

A plurality of Ada County voters are Republicans. But when you look closer, there’s a lot more variety by neighborhood.

Most of Boise’s precincts are solidly blue; in 2020, Joe Biden won more than 80% of votes in some precincts.

In parts of West Boise, the reverse happened, with Trump getting over 70% of votes.

Overall, Trump took the county with 50.3% of votes, while Biden received 46.4%.

Now facing Vice President Kamala Harris, turnout for Trump could go up or down, and give an indication of the political makeup of Ada County.