Rafael upgraded to hurricane en route to Cuba, could bring rain to Florida as it enters Gulf

Rafael has been upgraded to a hurricane Tuesday night as it approaches the Cayman Islands and nears landfall in Cuba. The Florida Keys are under a tropical storm warning as the hurricane may bring rains and winds to the region.

As of the 7 p.m. Tuesday update, the National Hurricane Center said Rafael is expected to move near or over the Caymans tonight and traverse a hot patch in the Caribbean. Combined with the low wind shear in the area, it’s a recipe for strengthening.

Forecasters said there’s a “significant chance” that Rafael could continue rapidly intensifying after it became a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph maximum sustained winds as it approaches Cuba.

Once the storm crosses Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, conditions get less friendly. The hurricane center predicts that Rafael will weaken back down to a tropical storm over the cooler waters as it heads straight toward Louisiana. Once in the center of the Gulf, computer models are split on what Rafael will do, although the hurricane center noted Tuesday morning that “all of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the central and northern Gulf.”

A high-pressure system over Florida is steering the storm away, protecting the peninsula from the worst impacts of the system. The Miami office of the National Weather Service noted that the chances South Florida will experience sustained tropical storm force winds this week are low — around 9% for Miami and 18% for Fort Lauderdale.

South Florida could also see 1 to 2 inches of rain through Thursday night, with some spots seeing as much as 4 inches.

As of 7 p.m., Rafael was headed northwest at 15 mph, an uptick from earlier in the day.

The hurricane center is also watching a tropical disturbance near Florida. As of Tuesday afternoon, its chances of formation had risen — a 30% shot at development in the next seven days and a 10% chance in the next two. The next name on the list is Sally.

Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.