Widespread rainfall warnings continue for southern portions of Ontario and Quebec as a warm, soggy pattern sees off 2022 in style.
A ridge of high pressure locked in place over eastern North America is responsible for our reversal in atmospheric fortunes.
Beginning the week with frigid temperatures and blizzard conditions, only to end the week with record-breaking high temperatures, is quite the swing even for the most seasoned weather enthusiast.
A system moving across Central Canada is responsible for the gloomy conditions that greeted us to begin this final day of 2022.
Persistent rain will continue through the day on Saturday for most of southern Ontario and Quebec, slowly beginning to clear out from west to east as we head into the evening hours.
By tonight, most of the rain should be out of southern Ontario, potentially saving any outdoor New Year’s Eve celebrations planned across the region.
Rain will persist into the wee morning hours for eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, however, putting a damper on any plans in and around Ottawa and Montreal.
We’re on track to record another 15-25 mm of rain across most of southern Ontario, with an additional 20-30 mm possible from the National Capital Region up the St. Lawrence toward Quebec City.
The combination of warmer temperatures and additional rainfall will lead to an enhanced flooding risk across southern Ontario through the weekend. The flood risk isn’t widespread, but typical flood-prone regions could deal with rising waters through next week.
Much of the region is still covered by a significant snowpack from the blizzards that raged through Christmas weekend.
In addition to runoff and ice jams leading to rising waters on area waterways, snow blocking storm drains and downspouts will lead to localized flooding that could be hazardous to motorists and pedestrians alike.
The density of the melting snow, along with the weight of added water from the coming rains, could also pose a risk to roofs that are still covered with deep snow.
We’ll see most of the precipitation come to an end as we start New Year’s Day on Sunday. Northwesterly winds blowing behind our latest system will drag in cooler air and allow for some lake-effect snow across the Huron and Georgian Bay shores by midday Sunday.
Even warmer and potentially record-breaking warm temperatures will arrive in the region by early next week.
Be sure to check back for the latest forecast across Ontario and Quebec.