Stocks have been on a tear this year, beginning 2020 much like they finished 2019 – in record fashion.
Last year the Dow was up 22.9%, the S&P was up 28.9%, and the Nasdaq was up 35.2%.
And so far this year, they’ve added an additional 1.6%, 3.3%, and 6.7% respectively, in less than 2 short months.
It’s easy to see why.
Our economy continues to impress. Unemployment is at 50-year low. Household income is at a 20-year high. Housing starts just saw their biggest increase in 13 years. And consumer confidence is near record highs.
We just signed Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade deal, and the USMCA trade deal. That’s two record trade deals with our top three trading partners, which are poised to usher in a wave of new growth and prosperity.
This is an historic time for our economy and the market.
And it looks like there’s a lot more upside to go.
In fact, I’m expecting another 25-30% gain in stocks again this year.
And while the recent coronavirus fears have weighed on the market a bit, the economic impact to U.S. stocks is expected to be minimal.
However, once it appears the worst of the outbreak is over, and travel restrictions are lifted (which has impacted the flow of people and goods around the world), stocks are expected to soar as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Like any year, there are always some headwinds out there.
Whether you’re bullish on the market, or a bit wary given its already impressive run, it’s now more important than ever to make sure you’re doing everything you can to get the most out of your trades.
Regardless of which camp you put yourself in, there will be distinct winners and losers as we move forward. So before you make your next trade, please read this first to learn how to put the probabilities of success in your favor.
Knowledge Is Power
We’ve all heard the old adage; knowledge is power.
It’s a great saying because it’s true.
And that saying couldn’t be truer than when it comes to investing.
Take a look at your last big loser for example. After analyzing what went wrong, you soon discover some piece of information that -- ‘had you known beforehand, you never would have gotten into it in the first place’.
I’m not talking about things that are unknowable, like inside information or surprise announcements that can catch even the most professional of professionals off guard.
I’m talking about things that you could have known about or SHOULD have known about before you got in.
Did You Know?...
• Did you know that roughly half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it’s in?
• Did you also know that oftentimes a mediocre stock in a top performing group will outperform a ‘great’ stock in a poor performing group?
• And did you know that the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1?
• And did you also know that the top 10% of industries outperformed the most?
More . . .
Deadline at Hand: Get Finding #1 Stocks Free
According to Zacks EVP Kevin Matras, the S&P will soar 25-30% this year – and the next few months could be one of the strongest periods of this entire bull market.
Today, Kevin is making his hardcover book, Finding #1 Stocks available to you for free. In it, he shares his best stock-picking secrets, including the exact formulas for strategies that from 2017 through 2019, produced gains of +118.0%, +175.7%, and even +186.7%.
Opportunity ends when inventory is depleted and no later than midnight Saturday, February 22.
Learn more now >>
Was your last loser in one of the top industries or in one of the bottom industries?
If it was in one of the bottom industries, you should have known to not take a chance on something with a reduced probability of success.
That’s what is meant by ‘knowledge is power’. Knowable things that you need to know.
That’s not to say that stocks in crummy industries won’t go up -- they do. And that’s not to say that stocks in good industries won’t go down -- because they do too.
But more stocks go up in the top industries, and more stocks go down in the bottom industries.
And since there are over 10,000 stocks out there to pick and choose from, why settle for one with a reduced chance of making any money?
Did You Know?...
• Did you know that stocks with ‘just’ double-digit growth rates typically outperform stocks with triple-digit growth rates?
• Did you also know that stocks with crazy high growth rates test nearly as poorly as those with the lowest growth rates?
Did your last loser have a spectacular growth rate?
If so, and it got crushed, would you have picked it if you knew that stocks with the highest growth rates have spotty track records?
It seems logical to think that the companies with the highest growth rates would do the best. But it doesn’t always turn out to be the case.
One explanation for this is that sky high growth rates are unsustainable. And the moment a more normal (albeit still good) growth rate emerges, the stock gets a dose of reality as well.
For example, a company earning 1 cent a share that is now expected to earn 6 cents, has a 500% growth rate. But, if it receives a downward estimate revision to 5 cents, that’s a significant drop. Even though it still has a 400% growth rate, the estimates were just reduced by -16.7% and the price is likely to follow.
If you’ve ever wondered how a stock with a triple-digit growth rate could possibly go down -- that’s how.
Instead, I have found that comparing a stock to the median growth rate for its industry is the best way to find solid outperformers with a lesser chance to disappoint.
Did You Know?...
• Did you know that stocks receiving broker rating upgrades have historically outperformed those with no rating change by more than 1.5 times? And did you know they outperformed stocks receiving downgrades by more than 10 x as much? The next time one of your stocks is upgraded or downgraded, be sure to remember these statistics so you know how the odds stack up and whether they’re for you or against you.
• Did you know that stocks with a Price to Sales ratio of less than 1 have produced significantly superior results over companies with a Price to Sales ratio greater than 1? And did you know that those with a Price to Sales ratio of greater than 4 have typically shown to lose money? That doesn’t mean that all stocks with a P/S ratio of less than one will go up and those over four will go down, but you can greatly increase your odds of success by following these valuations.
• Did you know that the Zacks Rank is one of the best rating systems out there? And did you know that since 1988, the Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy stocks have beaten the market in 26 of the last 32 years, with an average annual return of 24.7% per year? That’s nearly 2.5 x the returns of the S&P with an 81% annual win ratio.
• Did you know that two simple filters added to the Zacks Rank #1 stocks significantly increases its returns? What if you did? We have a screen that utilizes these two additional items. Over the last 20 years (2000 thru 2019), it’s produced an average annual return of 54.1% per year (9 x the market’s performance), while only holding five stocks in its portfolio at a time. That screen is aptly called the Filtered Zacks Rank5 strategy.
Do you know how well your stock picking strategies have performed?
Whether good or bad – do you know why?
Do you know if your favorite item to look for is helping you or hurting you?
This is important stuff to know.
Beat The Market On Your Next Trade
With stocks poised for another banner year, investors are poised for historic returns.
So make sure you’re taking full advantage of it.
And there's a simple way to add a big performance advantage for stock-picking success. It's called the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course.
With this interactive online program, you can master the Zacks Rank in your own home and at your own pace. You don’t have to attend a single class or seminar.
Zacks Method for Trading covers the investment ideas I just shared and so much more. It guides you to better trading step by step.
You'll quickly see how to get the most out of the proven system that has more than doubled the market for over three decades. Discover what kind of trader you are, how to find stocks with the highest probability of success, and how to trade them so you can consistently beat the market no matter where stock prices are headed.
You’ll get the formulas behind our top-performing strategies suited for a variety of different trading styles. The best of these strategies produced gains of +118.0%, +175.7%, and even +186.7% from 2017 through 2019.
The course will also help you create and test your own stock-picking strategies.
Today is the perfect time to get in. I'm giving participants free hardbound copies of my book, Finding #1 Stocks, a $49.95 value. Its 300 pages unfold virtually every trading secret I’ve learned over the last 25 years to beat the market.
Please note: Copies of the book are limited and your opportunity to get one free ends midnight Saturday, February 22, unless we run out of books first. If you're interested, I encourage you to check this out now.
Find out more about Zacks Home Study Course >>
Thanks and good trading,
Zacks Executive VP Kevin Matras is responsible for all our trading and investing services. He developed many of our most powerful market-beating strategies and directs the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course.
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