Reports of a 'nuclear train' heading to Ukraine should be treated with caution
Reports of a "nuclear train" heading to Ukraine have spread online but these reports should be treated with caution, according to an expert.
This video was released online yesterday, and some reports have claimed it shows a convoy of the unit responsible for transporting Russia's nuclear arsenal heading to Ukraine.
The train has been geo-located to Sergiyev Posad, northeast of Moscow. This is approximately 350-400 miles from the Ukrainian border and it cannot be confirmed where the train is heading from the video alone.
Forbes McKenzie, former British Army intelligence officer and chief executive of McKenzie Intelligence Services Ltd, told Sky News: "The train that has been observed has all the signatures of the 12th Main Directorate."
The 12th Main Directorate is responsible for the safe-keeping, maintenance, transportation and disposal of the country's nuclear arsenal.
"The signature equipment that is being seen is a BPM-97 armoured vehicle which we know the 12th Directorate have but it is a utility vehicle which we see throughout Russian force such as the Border Guard," he said.
These vehicles are highlighted in this photo of the train released on Russian social media. Analysts have noted they may feature a rare combination of weaponry, including a 30mm cannon and grenade launcher. It is unclear which units operate this version of the vehicle.
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It is also not unlikely that the vehicles seen in the video could be part of a resupply to Russian units due to losses served over almost eight months of war in Ukraine.
McKenzie warned: "At this time of year we would expect to see 12th Directorate exercising and that is not unusual. NATO units do the same thing, in fact all countries that have a nuclear capability do that."
One possible explanation is that these movements are a warning to the West. As McKenzie explains, these movements are "something that is very visible from space. It shows capability and demonstrates if Russia wanted to use tactical weapons, it could do".
But reports of a possible nuclear escalation should be treated with caution.
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"I would strongly argue Russia doesn't have the opportunity to deploy nuclear weapons. It is a one-way ticket to losing, we've been told that clearly and in no uncertain terms by NATO," McKenzie said.
"At no point have the ground forces on the Russian side been seen to be preparing to operate in a nuclear environment.
"There are very particular units that need to be brought forward in order to deploy nuclear capabilities and troops on the ground need to be equipped with hazmat suits. We've not seen any of that take place."
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
