Severe storm, tornado risk sets up in Ontario, but timing will be key

·5 min read
Severe storm, tornado risk sets up in Ontario, but timing will be key
Severe storm, tornado risk sets up in Ontario, but timing will be key

The end of the final long weekend of summer got off to a stormy start in parts of southern Ontario, with an early-morning round of severe storms that generated a tornado warning near Lake Huron. The threat for storms will move into eastern and northern sections for the rest of Labour Day Monday. However, a threat for more severe weather is shaping up late Tuesday evening across the south, but timing will be crucial to the strength of them due to loss of sunlight as days become shorter. Some of them near Lake Huron shores could have embedded rotation, so a tornado or two is possible. For a look at what's to come Monday and the severe storm threat for Tuesday, see below.

MONDAY: EARLY-MORNING THUNDERSTORMS PROMPT TORNADO WARNING IN SOUTH

It was a loud start to Labour Day in parts of the south, with early-morning severe thunderstorms that prompted a tornado warning near Lake Huron. There has been no confirmation of a twister at this time, but photos of damage from the pre-dawn storms have circulated on social media.

Meanwhile, most of the south should see a fair day for the remainder of the holiday Monday. There could be some showers in cottage country and eastern sections, but it won't be a washout. There may also be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms in the latter during the afternoon.

ONRISKMON
ONRISKMON

To the north, Monday will see the development of a low-pressure system in northwestern sections, and will continue to deepen as it crosses Lake Superior on Tuesday. The first chance of storms will be overnight Monday along the Ontario-Minnesota border but it certainly won't be the main event.

Near seasonal temperatures will be in store for southern Ontario on Labour Day Monday, with temperatures comfortably sitting in the low and mid-20s across the region.

TUESDAY: SEVERE THREAT IN SOUTH INCLUDES TORNADO CHANCE, BUT TIMING IS KEY

Tuesday will be the day forecasters will be keeping a close eye on southern Ontario. Strengthening mid-level winds and improving shear along the cold front will drastically increase the severe storm potential across Michigan and southwestern Ontario.

OntarioTiming
OntarioTiming

With the shorter days upon us, the timing of the front will be crucial to the storm severity on this side of the border. The Lake Huron shores will have the best chance for severe storms Tuesday evening with embedded rotation and larger-sized hail possible. Because of the chance of rotating storms, there is the potential for a tornado or two in this area in the southwest.

In addition to the hail and tornado risk, the severe storms may also bring strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.

The GTA will see the arrival of the line of storms well after sunset, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the GTA to central Ontario. After midnight, the line of storms will weaken as it moves through eastern sections.

ONRISKTUES
ONRISKTUES

There will also be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms in northwestern and northeastern sections Tuesday.

Tuesday will see slightly warmer daytime highs in the south, reaching the mid-20s in most areas, even approaching the 3-degree mark in southwestern areas. The humidity will also make a return on southern sections, with feels-like values reaching into the low to mid-30s.

LOOK AHEAD: TEMPERATURES COOL OFF, POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MID-SEPTEMBER WARMTH

Beyond Tuesday, a few days of cooler temperatures behind this system -- dropping to near seasonal or a few degrees below seasonal.

ONTempFri
ONTempFri

Forecasters are watching the potential for a period of above seasonal temperatures for mid-September. However, keep in mind that seasonal temperatures are steadily falling now, so it will not be nearly as warm as what we saw during August.

Stay tuned for the latest forecast across Ontario.

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