Severe thunderstorm chances build in parts of Ontario this long weekend

·3 min read
Severe thunderstorm chances build in parts of Ontario this long weekend
Severe thunderstorm chances build in parts of Ontario this long weekend

In true long weekend fashion, the weather forecast across much of Ontario will be anything but simple as we kick-off the unofficial start to summer. If you’re planning a getaway this weekend, you’ll have a tough time packing for the heat in some areas and the chill in others, not to mention dodging the risk for severe storms in spots. Most days carry a thunderstorm threat, with the holiday Monday looking like the driest day of the bunch, though at the cost of a major cooldown. The weekend will start by feeling like July, only to end up much closer to early-spring like temperatures. See the breakdown of the weekend weather to come, below.

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FRIDAY:

Friday will see the heat and humidity build into southern Ontario and across cottage country, with widespread humidex values in the low to mid 30s, possibly even reaching the upper 30s for sections of the southwest.

Friday Humidex
Friday Humidex

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in southern Ontario with the heat and instability building. The main storm event will evolve further north towards the Nickel Belt, cottage country and near the Bruce Peninsula, where an approaching cold front will trigger a line of thunderstorms late in the day and into the evening.

Storms along this front are forecast to be severe in some areas and could produce heavy to torrential rain, small hail and strong wind gusts, with hail most likely east of Georgian Bay.

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image - 2022-05-20T073228.865

Significant lightning will also be likely present along the line of storms.

SATURDAY:

The cold front will continue to slide through southern Ontario through the day with heat and humidity staying locked towards the southern Great Lakes.

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image - 2022-05-20T072459.815

Storms are forecast to develop along the cold front once again during the afternoon, however with the timing and placement of the front, the greatest dynamics favourable for strong storm development will likely be south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and into the U.S.

We will still need to keep a close eye on communities along the Highway 401 corridor and south towards the lakes as some scattered storms are still possible.

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image - 2022-05-20T072429.870

Better dynamics will be present towards eastern Ontario from Kingston to Cornwall, so we will keep a close eye on storm development in these regions through the afternoon.

Heavy rain, strong winds, and small hail are all possible if storms develop.

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SUNDAY:

With another system tracking into southern Ontario, more rain and thunderstorms are forecast Sunday once again.

The most instability will build through the afternoon hours and will be present towards eastern Ontario, so major areas from Kingston to Ottawa, and communities east, will need to be on the watch once again for storm development.

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image - 2022-05-20T072514.819

WATCH: HOW THIS LONG WEEKEND WEATHER WILL IMPACT COTTAGE-GOERS

Click here to view the video

MONDAY:

Monday will be the driest day of the long weekend, but it comes at a price.

All of the weekend’s heat and humidity will have been swept away by the cold front, leaving behind temperatures that are 2-5°C below seasonal for late May. Widespread daytime highs in the low to mid teens are in the forecast.

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image - 2022-05-20T072530.858

Cooler-than-seasonal temperatures will persist through the middle of next week, with changeable temperatures and an unsettled pattern taking shape for the final week of May.

Be sure to check back for the latest updates on your long weekend weather across Ontario.

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