Severe weather could be headed for the metro-east. Here’s the latest forecast
The metro-east could be in the line of fire for severe weather Friday.
Exactly how severe remains murky at this point.
According to Brad Charboneau, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service of St. Louis, essentially anything is on the table — from potential tornado development to only rain showers.
“Right now, there’s still a little bit of uncertainly of just how much severe weather we might see,” he said Tuesday morning. “We’re still not sure how much we’ll see locally, but the potential does exist. This particular weather system will have a lot of wind shear, which is one important ingredient for severe weather. We’re not sure if the system will have enough instability to create severe weather.
“That’s biggest question mark right now and the big determinant of whether or not we’ll see severe weather in our area.”
Charboneau projected the primary time frame for severe thunderstorms would be the Friday afternoon and evening.
“That’s about when we expect the cold front to move through the area and expect the highest probability of thunderstorms,” he said. “The potential does exist for severe weather, but we’re still a few days away with a wide range of potential outcomes possible from some of the more severe things to not much at all and just rain and only a few thunderstorms. There’s still a wide range at this point.”
If the weather pattern reaches its maximum potential, however, high winds, hail and tornadoes are all possibilities.
“We’ll be watching it closely and, hopefully over next couple days, we can get some more clarity on what we can expect,” Charboneau said.
Meanwhile, with river levels high due to recent downpours, potential flooding is a concern.
“That’ll definitely be something we’ll be keeping an eye on,” Charboneau said. “A lot of that will depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs. But we will be monitoring that as well and we can’t rule that potential out either.”
Charboneau added it’s too soon to project possible rainfall amounts.
“It does look like we’ll see some widespread rainfall across the area at a minimum. We do have high confidence in that,” he said. “How much? A lot will depend on where the strongest thunderstorms will develop because that’ll produce the heaviest rain. We’re not totally sure on that yet.”
Impact for opening day?
Charboneau does not anticipate any weather issues disrupting the St. Louis Cardinals’ season-opener Thursday. First pitch is set for 3:10 p.m.
“As of right now, it doesn’t look like the chance for precipitation is high that day,” he said. “Thursday actually looks like once we get into the late evening we might start to see some showers. The chances probably do not increase until overnight Thursday or after midnight. During the day Thursday looks fairly warm with increasing humidity ... and it’ll kind of get breezy into the afternoon and evening. Winds will ramp up as we go through the day.
“But as of right now, there is no rain in the forecast or a high probability of rain Thursday.”
Safety tips
In preparation for Friday, Charboneau recommends people review their severe weather action plan and, if feasible, actually practice these drills.
“Think about where you’ll go and what you’ll do if there’s a severe thunderstorm and you’re at home or at work — and if there’s a tornado warning, where you’ll go,” he said. “If you have time, go through your severe weather drill and practice where you can go to keep safe through a thunderstorm or tornado warning. That’s really the best thing you can do. Even if we don’t have severe weather on the horizon this is a good time to do it.
“We can get severe weather at any time of the year, but usually more in the spring and summer. So this is a good time to review those action plans and be sure you’re prepared.”
The National Weather Service recommends keeping plugged into the forecast as it develops at www.weather.gov. Their Facebook page is www.facebook.com/NWSStLouis.
