Signal: Trump v Experts, Castro-less Cuba, and Killer Robots
Originally published by Ian Bremmer on LinkedIn: Signal: Trump v Experts, Castro-less Cuba, and Killer Robots
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TRUMP SHOULD BE GUIDED BY FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS?
Donald Trump’s critics say his foreign policy choices are foolish and dangerous. They hope he’ll be guided by the wise counsel of seasoned experts.
At a moment when US foreign policy choices have rarely been more contentious and opinions are often clouded by political approval of, or animus toward, those in charge, it is….
Time to play devil’s advocate.
Trump: A US attack is coming on the “gas killing animal” Assad.
Experts: Firing missiles at Syria comes with risks, and it won’t make things better.
The case for Trump: If Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has again used chemical weapons against Syrian civilians, he’s violated the Chemical Weapons Convention and committed an act of pure evil. Russia, Assad’s ally, will block UN action. How can the US raise the cost of such crimes for Assad and send an unmistakable warning to those who might do such a thing in future? Who else will enforce the chemical weapons ban?
Trump: US troops should leave Syria “very soon.”
Experts: ISIS isn’t finished, and Russia won’t fight them. Don’t repeat the mistakes of the retreat from Iraq.
The case for Trump: The Russians haven’t attacked ISIS because they know the US will do it for them. When ISIS attacks Russia, as it has in the past, and when Russia and ISIS are left to fight over Syrian territory, Russians will pound ISIS as US troops and taxpayers watch from a safe distance.
Trump: Syria is not our problem.
Experts: You can’t just leave Syria to Russia and Iran.
The case for Trump: The US has spent far more in Iraq and Afghanistan than on the entire Marshall Plan. What does Washington have to show for it? How much more should the American taxpayer spend on failed projects in the Middle East?
Trump: I’ve been tough on Russia.
Experts: Trump has been soft on Russia.
The case for Trump: Trump has endorsed a National Security Strategy that labels Russia a “revisionist power” that uses “modernized forms of subversive tactics” to “interfere in the domestic political affairs of countries around the world.”
Trump: I’ve been tough with Putin.
Experts: Trump is too nice to Putin.
The case for Trump: The president has called out Putin for backing “Animal Assad” in Syria, approved sanctions on two dozen Russian oligarchs and state officials close to Putin, approved the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine, expelled diplomats, and closed the Russian consulate in Seattle. He probably won’t let Moscow have the Miss Universe Pageant again either.
Trump: Our NATO allies are free-riding.
Experts: Criticizing NATO allies alienates valuable friends and encourages Russia to test NATO resolve.
The case for Trump: When Trump arrived in office, just five of NATO’s 28 members were spending the 2 percent of GDP on defense required of all members. Following Trump’s criticism, 15 of those governments have responded by spending more. That strengthens NATO, and it’s good for the United States.
Trump: Americans deserve better deals on trade.
Experts: Trump’s threats to existing trade deals encourage protectionism that will hurt Americans.
The case for Trump: If the president can force favorable changes to NAFTA, and if tariff threats earn concessions from China without starting the trade wars many experts fear, these moves will have helped Americans in hard-hit industries and US companies doing business overseas.
The bottom line: There are strong counter-arguments to every one of these points, but they all deserve debate that extends beyond anyone’s opinion of Donald Trump, his style, and his character.
HOORAY FOR CUBA WITHOUT CASTRO?
Next Thursday, the National Assembly will name a new Cuban president, and the island nation will have a leader who isn’t named Castro for the first time in nearly 60 years. The heroes of the revolution will make way for a new generation led by Miguel Díaz-Canel, who was not yet born when Fidel Castro overthrew Fulgencio Batista in 1959. This could be a landmark moment for Cuba’s relationship with the outside world and a major step toward a more promising future for the Cuban people.
Devil’s advocate. The new guy may lack the Castro charisma, but videotape of a private meeting with Communist Party members, published on YouTube last August by Cuban dissident Antonio Rodiles, suggests his views on Communism, civil rights, and freedom of speech follow in the hardline Castro tradition. In the video, the soon-to-be Cuban leader lambastes independent media, Cuban dissidents, and the staffs of the US, German, British, and Spanish embassies. He vows to shut down websites and civil society organizations he calls agents of counter-revolution.
GZERO World With Ian Bremmer: Moises Naim
A BODY BLOW FOR PUTIN’S ENTOURAGE?
New US sanctions, announced last Friday by the Trump administration, target seven Russian oligarchs, 12 Russian companies, and 17 state officials. The news reportedly cost companies controlled by aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska more than $6 billion in market value in the first two days of trading following the announcement. That’s a lot of pain, even for a man who can afford it.
Devil’s advocate: If the point is to pressure those closest to Putin to push the Russian president toward better behavior, it’s not going to work. Russia’s vertical power structure ensures the wealthy and well-connected depend almost entirely on Putin for their wealth and connections. In times of hardship, they depend even more on his good will. Far from making Putin a liability for those around him, sanctions reinforce his importance for them. In fact, the Russian government has already stepped in with financial help for Deripaska’s Rusal, the country’s lead aluminum producer. Impose these penalties to punish aggression, but don’t expect them to upend Putin any more than they’ve destabilized the Castros and Kims.
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
Yesterday (April 12) was “Yuri Gagarin Day,” a commemoration of the moment in 1961 when Gagarin (whose monument is pictured above) became the first human being to reach outer space. (See “Hard Numbers” below for some great stats.) Much can be said of Russia’s tortured history, but let’s remember that in less than 45 years, Russia went from a broken country that fought World War I barefoot to core of an empire that put the first man in orbit.
As Washington and Moscow trade threats over Syria and sanctions this week, take a moment to remember when US-Russian competition, at least in the area of manned space exploration, produced giant leaps for mankind.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Trump and Cuba — Last year, the Trump administration banned US citizens from doing business with dozens of entities linked to Cuba’s military and security services. In the process, the president indulged one of his favorite pastimes: undoing stuff Obama did. But 20 years ago, a report in Newsweek alleged that representatives of a Trump company had gone to Cuba to explore business opportunities in violation of the Cuba embargo. As Cuba moves beyond the Castros, might Trump want to outdo Obama again, this time by ending the embargo, while creating new opportunities for the family business?
Killer robots — To extend my fascination with 1968 another week, this month marks the 50th anniversary of the release of “2001: A Space Odyssey,” the greatest film ever made that you should never start watching after 9pm. In other news, governments met in Geneva this week to discuss whether and how to regulate killer robots. Officials call them “Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems,” but they’re talking about killer robots.
Buhari’s bid — Despite unanswered questions about the state of his health, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari announced Monday that he’ll run for re-election. The vote will be held next February. Buhari is 75, and he spent several months in London last year receiving treatment for an undisclosed illness. In 2015, Buhari’s inauguration marked the first peaceful transfer of power from one party to another in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, since the country returned to democracy in 1999. But his poor health has contributed to fears that the corruption- and terrorism-plagued country lacks effective leadership. Within hours of his announcement, Buhari boarded a plane for London, though officials won’t say whether he plans to receive medical treatment there.
WHAT WE’RE IGNORING
The Myanmar verdicts — On Wednesday, a military court in Myanmar sentenced seven Myanmar soldiers to 10 years in prison with hard labor for “contributing and participating” in the murder of 10 Rohingya Muslims. The evidence suggests there were a whole lot more than seven people involved in crimes against the Rohingya. And as of this writing, two Reuters journalists arrested for investigating this crime are still in jail.
A “Protect Mueller” Law — The Senate Judiciary Committee may vote on a bipartisan bill designed to protect special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of President Trump. The measure would reportedly give any special counsel 10 days after being fired to challenge the dismissal in court. We’re skeptical this proposal will ever go to the full Senate for a vote.
Hódmezővásárhely — Five weeks ago, I highlighted the Hungarian town of Hódmezővásárhely, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party had just taken a 16-point shock defeat in an election for mayor. “Is this a harbinger of electoral trouble for Orban,” I wrote? Hardly. Orban and Fidesz won a landslide victory in national elections this week. Extensive research (a one-minute Google image search) assures us that Hódmezővásárhely, aka “The Peasant Paris,” is a lovely town, but we’ll now go back to ignoring it.
HARD NUMBERS
15: India’s government announced on April 2 that it would blacklist journalists it accused of creating or spreading “fake news.” A wave of condemnation, including charges that Prime Minister Modi wanted to intimidate media away from legitimate criticism of government, followed. Modi withdrew the order 15 hours later.
44: The US admitted 44 Syrian refugees in the first three months of 2018. That’s down from 12,587 in 2016 and 6,577 in 2017. #YearningToBreatheFree
41: An astonishing 41 percent of American adults cannot identify Auschwitz as a Nazi concentration camp. That figure includes 66 percent of those aged 18–34.
11: About 14.8 million Brazilians now live in extreme poverty, an increase of 11 percent since 2016.
108: On April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin orbited the Earth in 108 minutes. To escape Earth’s gravitational pull, his Vostok 1 spacecraft exceeded speeds of 5 miles per second. Less than one month later, Mercury astronaut Alan Shephard became the first American in space.
WORDS OF WISDOM
“I was in Texas with President Bush, father and son, and they knew that I’m coming to Paris. They gave me barbecue sauce. They said if you don’t like the French food you can use the barbecue sauce.”
— Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman continues his charm offensive this week with a tour through Europe.
This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Give a friend the Signal here.
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