What is storm clustering and what does it mean for the UK weather?
The Met Office has warned of an increased risk of “storm clustering” over the next three months.
The Met Office has warned of an increased risk of “storm clustering” over the next three months.
The UK has been battered by winds up to 100mph from Storm Eowyn in recent weeks, closely followed by Storm Herminia.
Now the Met Office’s three-month forecast, published on 27 January, has warned of the potential of more stormy weather to come.
“The chance of impacts from windy or even stormy weather is increased compared to normal, particularly during February and March which tend to have more potential for wind than April, it reads.
“The increased chance of storms give rise to a greater risk of 'storm clustering' with consecutive events affecting the UK in quick succession.”
What is storm clustering?
‘Storm clustering’ is when several storms follow closely in each other’s footsteps, causing greater disruption.
A Met Office spokesperson told Yahoo News that storm clustering is a "passage of successive strong storms in a short space of time", adding: "Clustering episodes are considered significant as they compound the hazards of individual storms and impede recovery operations."
Is it becoming more common?
Storm clustering is not a new phenomenon, with at least one potential ‘storm cluster’ dating back three centuries.
“The great storm of 1703 – perhaps the most damaging in recorded British history – had gales lasting nine days and is a strong candidate to have been a storm clustering event," the Met Office says, adding there have been a number of high-profile examples in recent years, too.
“An often referred-to example is that of storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin, which occurred between 14-22 February 2022.”
It’s also difficult to say whether storms have become worse in recent decades.
“In the last 50 years there has been a trend towards UK winters being more affected by westerly winds from the Atlantic Ocean," the Met Office says.
“In spite of this, the more sporadic nature of storms makes identifying trends in storminess more difficult - the evidence for having had an increase in storms remains inconclusive.”
Is it related to climate change?
Academic studies suggest that the most intense UK storms will get more intense in the future, the Met Office says.
But whether there’s a direct link to storm clustering remains unclear. “There has been less work on this question and the limited results available give a mixed picture," the Met Office says.
“Nevertheless, storm clustering is likely to have important implications for the UK in any climate era.”
What does this all mean for the next few weeks?
There's no question that the UK's weather has been variable recently.
According to the Met, there are a number of climate systems driving our weather. One of which is the "jet stream", which are strong winds around five to seven miles above Earth’s surface, and have a large impact on the planet's weather.
In some cases, it acts like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the air out of the top of low-pressure systems, causing the pressure to drop even further and creating the conditions for strong wind and rain.
Another system having an impact is the moderate La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean, which can spell a cooler early winter and then a wetter spring for Britain.
In short, it means the next few weeks are likely to be warmer than normal, windier and wetter.
Read more
What do amber, red and yellow weather warnings actually mean? (Yahoo News)
'Weather bomb' of high wind could arrive in North East as Storm Eowyn named (The Northern Echo)
Met Office explains why US cold snap is bringing stormy weather to the UK this week (Manchester Evening News)