Storm tracker: System in Caribbean Sea could soon become tropical depression

Gabe Hauari and C. A. Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK

October 31, 2024 at 7:53 a.m.·1 min read

While there is currently no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean, that could change as soon as this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

NHC forecasters said Thursday a "broad area of low pressure" is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week, and that gradual development is possible thereafter.

"A tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea," the NHC said Thursday. The system has a 50 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.

"Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and another near the Yucatan Peninsula," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said. "A more northern track would elevate the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf coast, likely in the Nov. 6-11 time frame."

While the conditions that produced hurricanes Helene and Milton remain the same, the area has been kept relatively quiet by high wind shear that kept showers and thunderstorms from organizing. But that's ending soon, according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

"Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, and so it will basically create a pocket with high ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development," DaSilva said.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Atlantic storm tracker

When does hurricane season end?

A typical Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHC tracking system that could become tropical depression

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Atlantic storm tracker

When does hurricane season end?

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