Super Bowl LV betting: After early Chiefs love, more bets coming in on Tom Brady, Bucs

Sam Cooper
·3 min read

We’ve finally reached Super Bowl week and the betting splits at BetMGM are beginning to even out some.

Early on, the Kansas City Chiefs were getting most of the love from bettors ahead of their Super Bowl LV matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites. The spread briefly ticked down half a point to three, but has been holding steady at 3.5 at BetMGM.

In the first few days after the line was posted, bettors were all over the Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions. Early last week, three six-figure bets came in on the Chiefs side and MGM reported that 76% of the bets and 80% of the early money was on Kansas City.

In the days since, though, more bettors are siding with Tom Brady and the Bucs.

As of Monday morning, 62% of the bets for Sunday’s game are on the Chiefs, but 51% of the money is on the Bucs. Of course, the monster $2.3 million bet on the Bucs +3.5 from last week plays a huge role in those splits, but it’s still notable that the Bucs are beginning to receive more action.

BetMGM expects more money to roll in on Kansas City, which would make the sportsbook root for the Bucs despite the possibility of paying out a $2 million bet.

“The public loves Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but sharp bettors have not wagered on either team. The book is currently balanced but come Sunday BetMGM will likely need Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to cover. Of course that could change as more big bets are placed leading up to kickoff,” said Jason Scott, the VP of Trading for BetMGM.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates with Ali Marpet after winning the NFC championship NFL football game in Green Bay, Wis., Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 31-26 to advance to the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Tom Brady is back in the Super Bowl for the 10th time, his first time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Despite a 14-2 regular season record and two more wins in the playoffs, the Chiefs have not been very profitable for bettors this season. Before finally covering against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game, the Chiefs hadn’t covered the spread since Nov. 1. They had gone nine straight games without covering, going 0-8-1 ATS despite an 8-1 record straight-up over that span.

By comparison, the Bucs are now 11-7-1 ATS this season, including the postseason. They had to win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl, and they covered the spread as an underdog against the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers in the divisional round and NFC title game.

Can the Bucs do it again?

What about the over-under?

Oddsmakers are expecting a pretty high-scoring game and the public is right there with them.

The total for Super Bowl LV opened at 57.5 and currently sits at 56.5. The public has been on the over, with 74% of the bets coming in on that side. Most of the money is on the over as well, with 71% of the handle betting on the game to exceed 56.5 points.

Over the last 10 seasons, the over is 6-4 in Super Bowls. The last two Super Bowls have gone under the total.

The over is 11-8 in Bucs games this season and 9-9 in Chiefs games.

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