Is Thom Tillis toast? ‘It’s not going to be an easy path’ | Opinion
The political temperature is rising for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.
As expected, the pressure is on Republican senators to confirm Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees, no matter how unqualified or controversial. And as a senator from a purple state — and one who occasionally behaves as a moderate — Tillis was regarded as a potential swing vote.
The pressure comes as Tillis is increasingly finding himself in an impossible political position, with rumblings of a potential primary challenge if he runs for reelection in 2026. The Republican base isn’t particularly happy with the bipartisan streak that Tillis has displayed in recent years, particularly on issues like gay marriage, gun safety and immigration reform.
“It is not going to be an easy path for Thom Tillis to gain reelection,” Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political science professor, told me. “The primary is going to be a challenge for him. I’m not saying he won’t get through it, I’m not saying that he won’t win, but grassroots Republicans have made it pretty clear that they would like to challenge him in the primary.”
But Tillis squashed any rumors of a potential defection on Trump’s nominees in a Breitbart News story this week that confirmed he would vote for any nominee that progresses to a floor vote. In a statement, a Tillis spokesperson told Breitbart that “any nominee that gets a favorable vote out of committee will get the Senator’s vote on the floor.”
That’s a hedge. Instead of making a tough decision on his own about whether to support nominees that many Americans oppose, Tillis is leaving that to other Republicans. It’s nothing like the independent and principled senator he has been lately, and a lot more like the more feeble one he has tended to be in the past.
The statement also said that Tillis would personally work to ensure that Trump’s nominees for FBI director and attorney general make it through the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which Tillis is a member.
News reports suggest that as many as six Senate Republicans aren’t comfortable supporting Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for defense secretary who faces allegations of sexual assault and alcohol misuse. Tillis seems to want to make it clear that he is not one of those six, and is instead willing to fall in line with whatever his party chooses.
Recently, polling has surfaced testing the viability of a potential primary challenger to Tillis. One poll found that a third of GOP primary voters say they would vote for “someone else” over Tillis in 2026, while another poll tested a potential matchup between Tillis and Lara Trump. Support for Lara Trump dwarfed support for Tillis in the poll.
Meanwhile, Tillis has even received thinly veiled warnings directly from members of his own party. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson conducted his own survey on X, in which 44% of the respondents said Tillis should “absolutely NOT” be the nominee in 2026. Robinson’s response? “Thom is toast.”
The message seems to be clear: fall in line with what we want, or you’re out. There’s not much tolerance for moderate or reasonable Republicans in the GOP these days, and that’s unfortunate. If Tillis does the right thing — or if he continues to be the senator he’s been for the past few years — his chances of surviving a primary dwindle. It’s just disappointing that he only seems willing to be that senator when it’s relatively easy, and not when it comes at a cost.
To be clear, we don’t know the exact reasoning behind Tillis’ decision to back Trump’s cabinet nominees, but Tillis certainly wouldn’t be the first politician to adjust his behavior as his reelection date nears. No matter the reason, though, it’s disappointing to see him cede his vote like this.
“We all say we don’t like polarization. We all say we wish people would compromise more and moderate. But here’s an example of a politician who has moderated, and who has compromised, and his reward for that is the threat of a serious challenge from his own party,” Cooper said. “So I think it tells us a lot about where we are as a state and where our politics are today.”
