Five picks in the NFL, using the BetMGM lines as our guide. That’s how we roll here. Follow them, fade them, it’s up to you. If you’re gutsy enough to tell me your leans before kickoff, I’m all ears: @scott_pianowski.
Here’s what I like for Week 8.
Lions +3.5 at Eagles
Tell me one thing you like about this Philadelphia team. Anything. I’ll wait.
Sure, the Lions are a flawed team too, but the winless record is misleading — they should have beaten Baltimore, it took another kick from the moon for Minnesota to escape, and things were competitive against the Rams. This line suggests the Eagles would be around 9-point favorites if at home, which is absurd. The teams aren’t that different. Sprinkle some on the money line, too.
Colts -2.5 vs. Titans
Mad props to the Titans for what they’ve done the last two weeks, albeit Buffalo probably wins if Josh Allen doesn’t slip on fourth down, and a win over Kansas City might not mean as much as the name brand suggests. But Indianapolis has righted its season, too, and given that the Colts are at home and in a more urgent spot, I like siding with them. Punch those Jonathan Taylor over props as soon as you can.
Giants +10 at Chiefs
New York hasn’t been consistent at all, but you can see promise with the offense. Daniel Jones has three sharp games, two passable ones, and two stinkers. He should get at least some of his primary offensive help back for this game. Kansas City has been a terrible ATS ticket since last November, and there’s no way I can spot double digits with them until they show some good faith.
Falcons -3 vs. Panthers
The Falcons offense is moving in the right direction, with Kyle Pitts fully unleashed and Matt Ryan settling into the season. It’s too deep into the year to call Cordarrelle Patterson a fluke. Is a Calvin Ridley takeoff ready to go? I’d like to burn every nice thing I said about Carolina in September.
Browns-Steelers, Under 21 first half
No, this isn’t a joke. I prefer a first-half total to a game total because I don’t invite any of the game-chasing hijinks that often come late in a contest as teams get desperate. In the first half, both teams will focus on running the ball and hiding their quarterbacks. This will be the first early-window game to make it to halftime, as the clock will be running constantly. So long as there isn’t a rash of turnovers, we should make it to the window.