Wednesday is the first day of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and forecasters are already monitoring two disturbances.
One of the systems, the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, is forecast to turn into a tropical depression in the next few days and is forecast to bring heavy rain to South Florida on Friday and Saturday, National Weather Service forecasters told the Herald.
The other disturbance is producing disorganized showers about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas Wednesday night, but is unlikely to develop over the next few days as it moves away from the southeastern United States.
The system previously known as Agatha in the Pacific is the one Florida needs to watch.
The disturbance has crossed over into the Atlantic basin and was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. advisory Wednesday.
Forecasters expect it will become a tropical depression by the weekend as it slowly moves northeast over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday,” the hurricane center said in its advisory. “Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.”
The disturbance has an 80% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and through the next five days, the hurricane center said.
2 PM EDT Wednesday, June 1: There is a high chance a tropical depression will form and move northeastward over the SE Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely over portions of western Cuba & South Florida on Friday and Saturday. @NWSWPC pic.twitter.com/W3jIPZgJQK
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 1, 2022
Forecasters say the second disturbance has a low 10% chance of development in the next two to five days as it moves east-northeast over the next several days, away from the southeastern U.S.
The first name on the 2022 Atlantic storm list is Alex. NOAA predicts this will be another “above average” season with 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 of which will grow into hurricanes and 3 to 6 that will develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
This article will be updated.