Ernesto is now a hurricane. How strong will it get? Where’s it going? What forecast says

Ernesto strengthened into a hurricane in the Atlantic’s warm waters on Wednesday just north of Puerto Rico, and it could be a major storm by the time it nears Bermuda later this week, forecasters say.

Ernesto, now a large Category 1 hurricane, is continuing to douse Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with flooding rain Wednesday as it pulls away and heads north over the Atlantic’s open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ernesto’s center moved over the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and was north of Puerto Rico early Wednesday, the forecast track shows. Based on Wednesday’s forecast track, the system is not a threat to Florida.

Ernesto is quickly heading northwest over the Atlantic’s open waters and is expected to make a north-northwest turn by Wednesday night. While Ernesto is moving over steamy waters, a prime ingredient that helps hurricanes grow stronger, forecasters say strengthen gradually over the next few days.

Most models, forecasters say, indicate Ernesto reaching peak strength in about 48 hours with max winds around 115 mph — which would make it a Category 3 hurricane.

The forecast track shows Ernesto briefly strengthening into a Category 3 on Friday while it’s over the open water, heading to Bermuda. But its Cat 3 status is expected to be short-lived. The forecast shows Ernesto will slowly weaken into a strong Cat 2 with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph by the time it nears Bermuda Saturday.

“Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon,” the hurricane center said. “Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this weekend.”

Here’s what else to know:

Where is Ernesto now?

The storm was about 180 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island, Wednesday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center. Ernesto was about 720 miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from its center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 175 miles.

What weather is Ernesto bringing?

Forecasters expect tropical storm conditions to continue to diminish over the next several hours in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. More than 500,000 homes and businesses had lost power in Puerto Rico, according to the Weather Channel.

“Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the Virgin Islands this evening,” the hurricane center said.

Ernesto has dumped up to 10 inches of rain across eastern Puerto Rico and more rain is expected, with up to six inches of new rain possible, the National Weather Service in San Juan said Wednesday morning on X.

“By the time it’s all said and done, close to a foot or more of total rain is possible for parts of Puerto Rico and flash flooding with dangerous mudslides and landslides in higher terrain will be ongoing threats today,” Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local10, wrote in his “Eye on the Tropics” newsletter Wednesday. “Treacherous marine conditions with seas topping 10 feet and dangerous, life-threatening surf will persist for much of the day.”

Ernesto’s swells could also bring life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the U.S. east coast.

“Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend,” the hurricane center said. “Beachgoers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks, and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days.”

Is your Puerto Rico flight delayed?

More than 100 flights were canceled in the last 24 hours at Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, the largest airport in Puerto Rico, according to FlightAware.

FlightAware data shows that 49 flights, or about 25% of flights that were set to depart from the airport were canceled and 52 flights, or 27% were delayed, as of 2 p.m. Wednesday. For arrivals, 38 flights, or 20% of flights that were scheduled to arrive at the airport were canceled and 47 flights, or 24%, were delayed.

Check with your airline for flight status and updates.

Hurricane Ernesto’s Watches/Warnings

▪ A flood watch remains in effect through at least Thursday morning for parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

▪ A hurricane watch is issued for Bermuda.