Tropical Storm Francine forms, breaks season dry spell. Two disturbances could follow
The hurricane season dry spell broke Monday morning with the formation of Tropical Storm Francine, which is set to strike Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane later this week.
The National Hurricane Center is also tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic with good chances of forming in the next few days — one at about 40% and another newly upped to a 70% chance.
Forecasters say there’s a solid chance that both disturbances could strengthen into tropical depressions later this week. However, far-out computer forecast models have continued to show the potential tracks of both disturbances as messy and likely to stick within the Atlantic.
It’s too soon to know if either system could be a threat to land — that gets easier to say once a tropical depression or storm actually forms — but so far, experts aren’t raising red flags.
Francine, which is set to cross over some warmer-than-usual waters on the western side of the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days, is officially expected to make landfall as a high-end Category 2 storm sometime Wednesday.
“In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall,” forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. update.
Much of the Louisiana coast is under a hurricane or tropical storm warning, and forecasts show that some hard-hit spots could see up to 10 feet of storm surge above the ground as the storm comes ashore.
