Here’s how Trump and Biden stack up in polling in six key battleground states

Summer Lin
·3 min read

President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are competing for voters in battleground states that will likely sway the November election: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

All those states — some historically favorable for Democrats — voted for Trump in 2016 over then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had voted consistently for Democratic presidential candidates from 1992 to 2012, with Trump being the first Republican to break the streak of blue wins in those states with narrow victories.

According to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight average of polling, Biden is leading in all six states, but it’s a close race in some like Florida — a critical swing state with 29 Electoral College votes.

The final presidential debate — scheduled for Thursday in Nashville and moderated by Kristen Welker of NBC News — could sway more voters toward either candidate.

Here’s what the latest polling says.

Arizona

Trump won Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton with more than 91,000 votes, or 3.5%.

Biden is projected to get 48.8% of the vote as of Oct. 22 while Trump will get 45.4%, meaning Biden is estimated to be up by 3.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Biden is also leading in RealClearPolitics’ average, polling 49.5% compared to Trump at 46.3%, giving Biden a 3.2% lead in the polls.

Arizona has been a reliably red state when it comes to presidential elections, last voting for a Democrat in 1996 when President Bill Clinton was running for reelection.

Florida

Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 112,000 votes, or 1.2%.

Based on current polling, Biden is predicted to get 49.2% of Florida’s vote while Trump would get 45.4%, meaning Biden is up by 3.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Biden’s average on RealClearPolitics is 48.9% for Florida while Trump’s is 46.3%, giving Biden a 2.1% lead.

Florida, a perennial swing state, twice voted for President George W. Bush, a Republican, before going for President Barack Obama, a Democrat, in 2008 and 2012.

Michigan

Trump won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in 2016, narrowly beating Clinton by more than 10,700 votes, or .3%.

FiveThirtyEight’s reports that polling suggests Biden will win 50.8% of Michigan’s vote share while Trump would win 42.7%, meaning Biden is leading by 8.1% as of Oct. 22 in the polls.

Biden’s RealClearPolitics polling average is 50.4% while Trump’s is 42.6%, meaning Biden has a 7.8% lead.

North Carolina

Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes in 2016 and received about 173,000 more votes than Clinton, or 3.6%.

As of Oct. 22, Biden is projected to get 49.3% of votes in the Tar Heel state while Trump would get 46.2%, meaning Biden is leading by 3.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Polling averages have Biden with 48.8% and Trump with 46.5%, giving Biden a 2.3% lead, according to RealClearPolitics.

North Carolina has just once voted for a Democratic presidential candidate this century, narrowly going to Obama in 2008.

Pennsylvania

Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 44,000 votes, or .7%.

Biden, based on current polling, is projected to win 50.6% and Trump 44.3%, meaning Biden is leading by 6.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Polling averages have Biden with 49.5% and Trump with 44.6%, meaning Biden is leading by 4.9%, according to RealClearPolitics.

Wisconsin

Trump won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 22,000 votes, or .7%.

Biden is projected to win 50.5% and Trump 43.9% based on polling, meaning Biden is estimated to be up by 6.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Polling averages show Biden with 49.3% and Trump with 44.7%, meaning Biden has a 4.6% lead, according to RealClearPolitics.