Trump had a big lead in North Carolina. Not anymore, a new poll says
A new poll of swing states released by the Cook Political Report on Wednesday shows Vice President Kamala Harris registering a slight lead, well within the margin of error, over former President Donald Trump in North Carolina.
In a match-up that includes third party candidates, Harris leads Trump 46% to 44%. In a head-to-head contest, the Democrat’s lead narrows to one percentage point: 48% to 47%, with the remaining roughly 6% of respondents saying they would not vote or are undecided.
The poll, which was conducted between July 26 and Aug. 2, surveyed 403 likely North Carolina voters, and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9%.
The latest figures show Trump losing ground since the Cook Political Report’s last Swing State Project poll in May, which found the Republican former president leading Democratic President Joe Biden by eight percentage points in North Carolina in a match-up that included third party candidates, and seven percentage points in a head-to-head race.
An average of recent North Carolina polls collected by RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a lead of 2.4 percentage points over Harris. Those polls were all conducted between July 19 and Aug. 8.
In May, Trump was leading Biden in all but one of the seven states the Cook Political Report is polling this year. The two candidates were tied in Wisconsin.
The latest poll shows Harris now leading Trump in all (Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) but two states: Georgia, where the two candidates are tied, and Nevada, where Harris has narrowed the margin, but Trump maintains a lead.
Harris’s recent surge in the polls has been “driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters,” wrote Amy Walter, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report.
Biden’s decision on July 21 to end his campaign has shaken up the presidential race, with polling over the last few weeks showing the race becoming much more competitive.
Trump, who won North Carolina in 2016 by 3.6% and in 2020 by a closer margin of 1.3%, returned to the state on Wednesday to deliver remarks in Asheville about the economy and the cost of living. A few weeks prior, Trump held a rally in Charlotte, and in May, he dropped by a NASCAR race in Concord.
Harris, meanwhile, is planning to make her eighth trip to North Carolina on Friday, when she will visit Raleigh to talk about her plans to bolster the economy and prevent price gouging, McClatchy reported.
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